Alternative assets and commodities

Commodities

Last week, oil prices concluded the week on a positive note, with gains noted on Friday. Brent crude rose by 4.64% for the week, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed 4.50%. Despite experiencing fluctuations throughout the week—initial increases on Monday and Tuesday followed by drops on Wednesday and Thursday—both benchmarks demonstrated resilience amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and uncertainties surrounding the U.S. elections.

However, oil prices have seen a significant decline as concerns about escalating tensions between Israel and Iran begin to ease. Recent Israeli retaliatory strikes have notably avoided targeting Iranian energy infrastructure, suggesting a potential de-escalation in the ongoing conflict surrounding Israel’s military actions in Lebanon and Gaza.

While Iran and Israel have engaged in missile exchanges, recent remarks from Iranian leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, notably refrained from direct threats against Israel, indicating a potential shift in rhetoric that may further contribute to reducing tensions.

On Tuesday, oil prices experienced a slight dip, building on a more significant drop of over 5% from the previous day. This recent decline is largely tied to reports indicating that Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, is set to arrange a meeting aimed at exploring diplomatic avenues for resolving the ongoing conflict in Lebanon. Market participants are closely monitoring this development, as it could influence geopolitical stability and oil supply dynamics.

For the first time this month, the price of Brent crude oil has fallen below $72, currently sitting at $71.32 (at the time of reporting). This marks a sharp decline from $76.05 on Friday, following a dramatic drop of over 5% on Monday morning.

This drop in oil prices is expected to influence fuel costs at the pump, with reductions in petrol and diesel prices likely to occur in the coming days. The easing of fears surrounding further conflict escalation in the region has contributed to this price shift.

In addition to the geopolitical concerns, declining oil demand from China—the world’s largest crude oil importer—continues to cast a shadow over global consumption patterns and pricing. As China deals with economic challenges, its reduced appetite for oil is causing ripples throughout the international market.

Notwithstanding these pressures, the CEO of Saudi Aramco, as reported by Reuters, maintains that the oil market is currently in a state of equilibrium. He forecasts that global oil demand will reach an average of 104.5 million barrels per day for the year, suggesting a balanced outlook amidst the fluctuating conditions.

Alternative Assets

Since Bitcoin’s halving in April, the cryptocurrency has been consolidating between $54,147 and $69,500. This week, however, it surged toward its all-time high of $73,800, marking a notable shift in market dynamics.

Here are six key indicators suggesting Bitcoin is poised for new highs:

  1. Exit from Downtrend: Bitcoin has officially broken free from a seven-month downtrend, signaling renewed bullish momentum.
  2. Range Break: The price has sustained a multiday close above its previous trading range, prompting traders to open positions with targets between $85,000 and $160,000, as highlighted by veteran trader Peter Brandt.
  3. Near All-Time High: Bitcoin approached a new all-time high on October 29, briefly touching $73,562, though it has since settled around $72,300.
  4. Low Retail Interest: Despite the rally, retail investor interest remains subdued. Current Google Trends data shows a search interest score of 23 out of 100 compared to the peak in May 2021.
  5. Coinbase App Ranking: In previous bull runs, Coinbase often surged into the top 50 of the Apple App Store, but it currently sits at 308th. However, it did jump 167 spots recently, indicating potential rising interest.
  6. Market Sentiment: The lack of retail enthusiasm might suggest that the current rally is driven more by institutional interest, which could be a positive sign for a sustained upward trend.

 

With these factors in play, Bitcoin appears to be gearing up for a significant breakout, potentially leading to new all-time highs.

The recent surge in trading volume for BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) highlights a notable shift in investor behaviour as Bitcoin approaches its all-time high. On October 29, daily trading volume skyrocketed to $3.35 billion, marking the highest level in over six months.

This spike in activity is attributed to panic buying, with many investors feeling the pressure of FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) as Bitcoin trades around $72,390—just 2% shy of its previous peak. Analysts suggest that this enthusiasm reflects a growing urgency among traders to capitalise on potential gains as the market nears a significant milestone.

As Bitcoin continues to flirt with its all-time high, the combination of heightened trading volume and investor sentiment could further fuel the momentum in the coming days.

Ethereum (ETH) is experiencing a notable uptick, rising over 7% on Tuesday and aiming to reclaim the key price level of $2,817. This growth comes amidst criticism regarding its performance compared to Bitcoin and Solana. While Bitcoin is just 3% off its all-time high and Solana is 31% away, Ethereum remains nearly 50% below its peak of $4,878.

In response to the concerns, co-founder Vitalik Buterin has outlined a potentially bullish future for Ethereum in his sixth blog post of a series started earlier this month. Titled ‘The Splurge,’ Buterin emphasised four key goals for Ethereum’s development:

  • EVM Stability: Achieve a performant and stable ‘endgame state’ for the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM).
  • Account Abstraction: Introduce account abstraction in the protocol, enhancing security and convenience for all users.
  • Transaction Fee Optimization: Improve transaction fee economics to boost scalability and minimize risks.
  • Advanced Cryptography: Investigate advanced cryptography techniques that could significantly enhance Ethereum’s capabilities over the long term.

 

These initiatives suggest a commitment to enhancing Ethereum’s functionality and user experience, potentially positioning it for a stronger performance as market dynamics evolve.

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