Last week, oil prices saw a slight uptick on Friday due to reports indicating that Iran was preparing a retaliatory strike against Israel from Iraq. Despite this, Brent crude recorded a weekly decline of approximately 3.35%, while WTI fell by about 3.19%. The market’s focus shifted back to the U.S. presidential election and ongoing geopolitical tensions, which have been pivotal in shaping investor sentiment.
However, the recent U.S. presidential election has significantly influenced global news, particularly affecting the oil and cryptocurrency markets. In the course of the election, both West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude oil prices experienced gains, closing at $71.99 and $75.53, respectively, on Tuesday. This upward trend came after a modest increase in oil prices on Monday, attributed to OPEC+’s decision to delay a planned output hike during its recent meeting.
A recent survey by Reuters revealed that OPEC’s oil output rebounded in October from its lowest levels this year, primarily due to Libya resolving a political crisis. However, efforts in Iraq to adhere to production cuts limited the overall gains. In October, OPEC+ countries collectively produced 26.33 million barrels per day (bpd), reflecting an increase of 195,000 bpd from September, with Libya contributing the most significant rise. Venezuela also reported an increase in output, reaching 860,000 bpd—the highest level since at least 2020—benefiting from its exemption from OPEC+ agreements to limit production.
As OPEC+ holds back on increasing production, major U.S. oil companies like ExxonMobil and Chevron reported record-high outputs. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) noted that drillers extracted a record 13.5 million bpd of oil recently, with projections indicating that annual output could reach 13.2 million bpd in 2024 and 13.5 million bpd in 2025.
On Tuesday, oil prices experienced modest gains driven by several factors. An anticipated reduction in U.S. oil output due to Tropical Storm Rafael in the Gulf of Mexico added upward pressure on prices. Despite these bullish indicators, Saudi Arabia—one of the world’s leading oil exporters—reduced its official selling price for Arab Light crude destined for Asia for December deliveries. Market participants are also closely observing China’s National People’s Congress meeting for signs of potential fiscal stimulus measures that could enhance oil demand in the world’s second-largest economy.
For Nigeria and other OPEC+ member countries, these developments hold significant implications for local markets. The decisions made by OPEC+ directly influence global oil prices, which are crucial for economies reliant on oil exports like Nigeria’s. A stable or rising price environment can lead to increased revenue for the Nigerian government and support economic growth initiatives. Conversely, any downturn in prices could strain budgets and impact public spending.
The launch of UBS AG’s Ethereum-based tokenised fund is a significant milestone in the growing intersection of traditional finance and the blockchain space. Tokenised funds, essentially using blockchain technology to represent ownership or participation in a traditional investment vehicle, can provide more efficient, transparent, and accessible investment options. By leveraging Ethereum, UBS is tapping into the liquidity, security, and decentralisation benefits that blockchain offers while still maintaining a connection to traditional finance. This move could open the door for institutional investors to engage more easily with digital assets in a regulated, familiar format.
On the other hand, Florida’s CFO announcement about holding over $800 million in cryptocurrency-related funds is also noteworthy. It shows that governments are becoming more proactive in exploring the potential of blockchain and cryptocurrencies as part of their financial strategies. Florida joining the ranks of other states and institutions showing interest in crypto could be a signal that state-level adoption and even integration into financial management or reserve strategies is becoming more normalised.
Both of these events demonstrate the growing importance of cryptocurrency in global finance and could be harbingers of greater mainstream adoption in the coming years. The fact that large, traditional financial institutions like UBS and state governments are now significantly involved in crypto signals a shift where blockchain and crypto may be considered more ‘normal’ parts of a diversified investment or asset management strategy.
To the main tea of the day, the entire crypto space is waiting eagerly for Kamala Harris to concede defeat to Donald Trump. In the meantime, BTC has surged to its all-time high of $75,358 while ETH is still dancing around the $2,600 region which is nothing close to its all-time high of over $4,000.
Traders, investors, and speculators are all waiting for the main announcement that would name Donald Trump as the winner of the United States 2024 Presidential election. Information gathered from individual states at the time of writing this article clearly indicates a big win for Donald Trump.
If the U.S. presidential race does indeed result in a victory for Donald Trump, it’s likely to spark a range of reactions in both traditional and crypto markets. Trump’s previous administration had mixed reactions from investors, but his policies were generally seen as favourable to businesses, with deregulation efforts, tax cuts, and a focus on encouraging growth in certain sectors. For crypto markets, any favourable stance on blockchain and crypto innovation could continue to be a major catalyst for bullish sentiment, especially if Trump were to signal support for further regulatory clarity or adoption.
Some likely impact of a Trump win will be:
Bitcoin (BTC): Bitcoin, often viewed as a hedge against economic uncertainty and inflation, could see an uptick in demand if markets interpret Trump’s policies as leading to increased volatility in traditional financial systems or if there’s concern about inflation. Investors might flock to Bitcoin as a ‘safe haven,’ especially if they see a potential shift in fiscal or monetary policy.
Ethereum (ETH): Ethereum’s performance, on the other hand, might be more dependent on the broader trajectory of the DeFi (decentralised finance) and blockchain space, as well as any regulatory signals regarding smart contract platforms. If Trump’s administration adopts a relatively hands-off approach to crypto regulation, that could give Ethereum and other altcoins room to thrive. However, any uncertainty around Ethereum’s scalability or competition from other blockchain platforms could keep ETH from matching Bitcoin’s explosive growth.
One of the most anticipated aspects of a new presidential administration for the crypto industry would be regulatory clarity. Under Trump’s leadership, there could be efforts to either slow down or streamline the regulatory process surrounding cryptocurrencies, potentially making it easier for institutional investors and businesses to enter the market. If Trump were to take a more crypto-friendly stance than his predecessors, that could be a key driver for further adoption and price gains in both Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Depending on how Trump approaches international relations and trade, there could be a ripple effect that influences global markets. A more protectionist or isolationist stance might spur some investors to look more toward decentralised assets like Bitcoin, as traditional market channels and global trade relations could be seen as more unpredictable. On the other hand, any instability in U.S. foreign policy could push investors to seek safe-haven assets, and Bitcoin, as the first and most recognised cryptocurrency, could continue to benefit.
It will be interesting to see how things play out. In the meantime, tread with caution if you must enter the crypto market!
