Oil prices fell on Friday, with Brent crude futures, set to expire that day, closing at $73.08 per barrel, down by 1.08%. Meanwhile, WTI crude futures ended the session at $69.95, slipping by 0.31%. This drop capped off a month in which both benchmarks posted their first monthly declines in three months, with WTI and Brent falling by 5.23% and 4.81%, respectively.
Volatility in oil markets persists amidst shifting policies, particularly from the US government. This month, President Trump announced proposed tariffs that are raising concerns among market participants. Starting March 4, tariffs will be imposed on goods imported from Mexico and Canada, as well as an additional 10% duty on Chinese imports. These measures could potentially stifle global economic growth, ignite inflationary pressures, and weaken crude oil demand.
At the same time, developments in Iraq are stirring further uncertainty. The Iraqi government is preparing to resume oil exports from the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region via the Iraq-Turkey pipeline. However, the situation remains fraught with complications. Despite official plans to resume exports at 185,000 barrels per day, eight international oil companies in the region have balked at restarting operations due to unclear commercial agreements and unsettled payment terms.
The return of Kurdish oil to the global market raises concerns about Iraq’s adherence to its OPEC+ commitments. Iraq has a history of exceeding its production quotas, and this move could exacerbate tensions within the organization.
On a more positive note, the US energy sector saw some expansion in its rig count. According to Baker Hughes’ weekly report, oil and natural gas rig numbers rose for the fifth consecutive week, the longest of such streak since May 2022. The total oil and gas rig count edged up by one to 593 for the week ending February 28. However, despite this uptick, the overall count remains 6% lower compared to the same time last year.
The rise in rig numbers, with oil rigs increasing by seven and gas rigs by four, indicates potential future growth in US production. However, these gains are tempered by the fact that the total rig count remains below last year’s levels.
As crude oil prices slid on Monday and Tuesday, concerns about future demand weighed heavily on market sentiment. WTI crude dropped below $68 per barrel on Monday, a 12-week low, while Brent fell to $71.49 per barrel. The downward trend was attributed to ongoing concerns over the US administration’s trade policies, including tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China, and their potential impact on global economic growth.
Meanwhile, OPEC+ continues to make headlines with its decision to increase oil output by 138,000 barrels per day starting in April. While this move follows a series of production cuts aimed at stabilizing the market, it signals a shift in strategy that could further influence oil prices. Analysts question whether OPEC+ is prioritizing political considerations over market stability.
The market’s vulnerability was also exacerbated by potential slowdowns in Chinese demand, particularly due to upcomingrefinery maintenance. Additionally, geopolitical developments, such as the cancellation of a license allowing US oil giant Chevron to operate in Venezuela, added to the market’s uncertainty.
The stakes remain high for global oil markets as the resumption of Kurdish oil could increase supply at a time when the US is pressuring Iraq to deliver on its oil commitments while simultaneously curbing Iranian exports.
As oil prices slide, countries like Nigeria face significant financial pressure. The West African nation has based its 2025 budget on an oil price of $75 per barrel and production at 2 million barrels per day. Any prolonged drop in oil prices would threaten Nigeria’s revenue projections, widen its fiscal deficit and increaseborrowing needs.
Furthermore, Nigeria’s foreign exchange market relies heavily on oil exports, meaning that price fluctuations could put additional strain on the economy. As global trade tensions rise and OPEC+ deliberates on output decisions, Nigeria faces an increasingly unpredictable oil market.
With multiple uncertainties hanging over the oil markets ranging from trade disputes to OPEC+ decisions, and production issues in Iraq, the outlook remains fluid. Investors and market participants must closely monitor these developments, as their impact on both oil prices and broader economic stability is significant.
Over the past week, the cryptocurrency market has seen significant volatility, driven by a number of key events. One of the most impactful was U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement on March 2, 2025, unveiling plans for a U.S. Strategic Crypto Reserve. This reserve would include major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), Cardano (ADA), and Ripple’s XRP. The news sparked an immediate market reaction, with Bitcoin surging past $94,000 and the overall crypto market cap jumping by over $300 billion in hours. Individual coins saw impressive gains: Cardano’s ADA soared nearly 60% within 24 hours, XRP rose more than 20%, and Solana (SOL) climbed about 18%, all fueled by excitement over their inclusion in the reserve.
However, by March 4, the initial excitement had begun to wane. Bitcoin dropped to $83,508.78 (a 2% decline on the day), and the global market cap fell 10.62%, retreating to $2.75 trillion, erasing much of the previous gains. Analysts pointed to economic concerns surrounding tariff issues, which overshadowed the positive news, as well as the lack of concrete details regarding the reserve’s implementation.
Beyond Trump’s announcement, other developments shaped the market this week. On March 3, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) made headlines by dropping its lawsuit against the crypto exchange Kraken.
On February 28, 2025, U.S. District Judge Carol Bagley Amon of the Eastern District of New York dismissed the SEC’s case against Richard Heart (born Richard Schueler) and his cryptocurrency projects—Hex, PulseChain, and PulseX. The SEC filed a lawsuit in July 2023, accusing Heart of conducting unregistered crypto asset security offerings that raised over $1 billion and allegedmisappropriation of at least $12.1 million in investor funds for personal luxuries, such as a 555-carat black diamond known as ‘The Enigma,’ sports cars, and Rolex watches. However, the case was dismissed on jurisdictional grounds, rather than the substance of the fraud or securities claims.
Judge Amon ruled that the SEC failed to establish personal jurisdiction over Heart,a U.S. citizen believed to be residing in Finland. The court determined that Heart’s online activities, including websites and social media promotions, were accessible globally but not specifically targected at U.S. investors. The SEC couldn’t prove that his alleged actions, such as misappropriating funds through digital wallets and crypto platforms, occurred within the U.S. or had a significant impact on U.S. investors to justify jurisdiction. The judge highlighted that Heart’s websites did not process transactions or gather investor data in a manner that tied them to the U.S., and the suspected fraudulent transactions occurred outside the country.
The SEC also announced the formation of a Crypto Task Force, which will host roundtables starting March 21 to address regulatory clarity, with the first focus on determining the security status of crypto assets. This followed the abandonment of legal actions against several other crypto companies, signaling a potential shift in the SEC’s historically tough stance under the new administration.
Bitcoin, which had briefly surged to $95,000 on March 3 following the reserve news, faced selling pressure early in the week, dropping to the $82,000 range, while Solana fell to $140. Ethereum also experienced a sharp decline, falling 13.91% to $2,103.06 by March 4. On the other hand, Cardano’s rally remained notable, driven not only by the reserve announcement but also by whale accumulation and its inclusion in Grayscale’s smart contracts fund. Overall, the market saw $3.68 billion in liquidations, highlighting the volatility, with investors now looking ahead to the White House Crypto Summit on March 7 for potential market-moving news.
Trump’s tariff policies, set to take effect on March 4 against Canada and Mexico, also added to market jitters, contributing to the crypto sell-off as they increased economic uncertainty.
In summary, the past week in crypto was marked by the initial surge following Trump’s announcement of the U.S. Strategic Crypto Reserve, followed by a sharp correction. The market was also influenced by changing regulatory signals from the SEC and broader economic concerns. Sentiment moved from optimism to caution, with all eyes now on the upcoming crypto summit for the next major catalyst.
