Crude oil prices saw a modest increase on Wednesday as tensions in the Ukraine conflict intensified, alongside signs of rising crude imports by China. As of 10:06 AM, Brent Crude rose 0.66%, reaching $73.794 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude increased by 0.81% to $69.802 per barrel.
The escalation of the war between Russia and Ukraine has provided upward support for oil prices. The increased use of the US Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) by Ukraine to strike Russian targets, along with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s reduced threshold for a potential nuclear strike, have escalated the risk of a disruption in supply.
China’s weaker oil imports earlier this year significantly dampened global crude prices, reflecting reduced demand from the world’s largest importer. However, recent data indicates a notable uptick in China’s oil purchases, which is now exerting upward pressure on prices. This shift suggests that as China resumes its buying activity, it is helping to stabilise and even elevate market prices, reversing the downward trend caused by earlier import declines.
In contrast, last Friday, oil prices experienced a significant drop, with WTI Crude falling by 4.92% and Brent Crude declining by 3.83%. This marked a substantial weekly loss for both benchmarks.
Data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics released on Friday showed that oil refiners in the country processed 4.6% less crude oil in October than the previous year, primarily due to plant shutdowns and reduced activity at smaller independent refineries.
Additionally, the pressure on oil prices intensified as leading agencies projected a slowdown in global demand growth. At the COP29 summit, Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), pointed out that “Global oil demand is weakening, a trend that has been evident for some time, largely due to slowing Chinese economic growth and the growing adoption of electric vehicles globally.”
The IEA now forecasts that global oil supply will exceed demand by over 1 million barrels per day in 2025, even if the OPEC+ production cuts continue. OPEC has similarly adjusted its growth forecast for global oil demand, lowering projections for both this year and 2025, citing economic slowdowns in China, India, and other regions.
In a more positive sign, data released Monday by the Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI) revealed that Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports hit a three-month peak in September. Exports rose by 80,000 barrels per day, reaching 5.751 million bpd, up from 5.671 million bpd in August. However, Saudi crude production saw a slight dip, falling to 8.975 million bpd from 8.992 million bpd the previous month.
The political landscape in the United States over the next couple of months will undoubtedly have a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market, for better or worse. If events unfold without any major negative disruptions involving figures like Donald Trump or Elon Musk, the crypto community is likely to see a favourable environment. In fact, prices have surged to their highest levels since Kamala Harris conceded, signaling strong bullish momentum.
However, there are still some speculators, institutional and retail holding back from entering the market, waiting for Trump’s official swearing-in before committing. This uncertainty could prove detrimental to those who hesitate too long. By the time they decide to enter, it may be too late, and they could find themselves buying at or near the peak. This could lead to losses driven by fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD), as they panic and sell once the market begins to correct.
For those watching from the sidelines, it’s important to consider that waiting for the ‘perfect moment’ can often result in missed opportunities. The crypto market, with its inherent volatility, rewards those who are able to make decisions with a longer-term perspective, despite the political noise.
The upcoming launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) ‘options’ in the United States is poised to be a significant turning point for the market, potentially unlocking a new wave of liquidity and attracting both institutional and retail investors. The first-ever spot Bitcoin ETF options in the U.S. are set to begin trading on November 19.
On November 18, the Options Clearing Corporation (OCC) announced that it was preparing to introduce these investment vehicles, with the BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) leading the way. The launch of spot Bitcoin ETF options, particularly tied to the IBIT fund, signals the beginning of a new era for Bitcoin’s price dynamics, volatility, and institutional adoption.
Alison Hennessy, Head of ETP Listings at Nasdaq, also confirmed that the exchange plans to list and begin trading spot Bitcoin ETF options as early as November 19.
Spot Bitcoin ETF options are financial derivatives that give investors the right—but not the obligation—to buy or sell shares of a spot Bitcoin ETF at predetermined prices. This opens up new opportunities for both hedging risks and speculative trading strategies within the crypto market.
Ethereum (ETH) recently experienced a significant 29% surge, breaking above the $3,000 level for the first time since August. However, its bullish momentum has slowed in recent days, with Ethereum up only 0.66% since November 11, despite Bitcoin (BTC) rallying by 13%. Despite this deceleration, data suggests that large investors, or ‘whales,’ are seeing the current price as an attractive opportunity for long-term accumulation.
In fact, whale activity in the Ethereum ecosystem has been notable, especially as ETH prices have surged by 23% in Q4. According to Lookonchain, an on-chain wallet tracker, a ‘fresh’ whale wallet has recently emerged, making a significant move. On November 9, a new wallet began accumulating ETH, purchasing a total of 7,389.5 ETH, valued at $23.44 million, over the past 24 hours.
This particular whale address has since bought more than 18,000 ETH at an average price of $3,201, which is currently worth approximately $57.8 million. The identity of this whale—whether an institutional or retail investor—remains unclear, but the scale of the purchases suggests a well-capitalised player is positioning for long-term growth. As ETH continues to hover around $3,000, this surge in whale activity may signal growing confidence in the cryptocurrency’s potential, with large investors taking advantage of the price dip to build substantial positions.
Then, there is ULTI. According to its ‘litepaper,’ ULTI is a DeFi protocol where users can deposit the native currency of a blockchain, such as ETH on the Ethereum Mainnet, in exchange for ULTI tokens. The core idea of the protocol is to incentivize users to contribute to its liquidity reserves while offering them additional rewards. Deposits are split between two allocations: 97% is directed to the Pump Pool, which is used to buy back and burn ULTI tokens, while 3% is allocated to provide liquidity to a Uniswap pair, referred to as the Trading Pool, to facilitate trading and generate revenue for the protocol.
ULTI will be deployed officially in December, 2024. Whether those who plan to use the protocol are part of the whales accumulating ETH or not, is unclear, but whatever the case, the crypto world looks forward to earning from it.
