
The second week of February 2026 emphasized a turning point for Nigeria’s financial and economic landscape. PenCom’s investment allocation revisions and the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) reintegration of BDC into the FX market boosted liquidity, stabilized valuations, and strengthened the Naira, while Dangote Refinery reaching full 650,000 bpd capacity is set to improve import reliance, near time projected save up of $10 billion in foreign exchange earnings, and stabilize Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) supply. Against a volatile macroeconomic backdrop, including the US employment surprises and commodity swings with Brent crude, WTI, and gold closing at $67.96/bbl., $63.12/bbl., and $5,065.06/oz, respectively, these policy and operational milestones strengthened market confidence, deepened investor participation, and signalled a more resilient, diversified, and growth-ready financial market.
Interbank liquidity opened with a surplus of over ₦4.32 trillion on Friday, marking a week-to-date increase of 57.1%, which was the week’s peak after it opened at ₦2.75 trillion. Money market rates were largely stable after opening at 22.50% and 22.80% for the Open Repo Rate (OPR) and Overnight (O/N) rate, respectively, peaking at 22.86% for the O/N while the OPR remained unchanged, before closing at 22.50% and 22.78%, individually. In the currency market, the Naira traded between $/₦1,345.00 and $/₦1,360.00 during the week, closing at $/₦1,355.42 on Friday.
The secondary market witnessed mild adjusting movement due to non-triggering factors such as auctions or events. Bond yields was largely a mix of flat and slightly positive movement (majorly 31s, 33s, 34s, 35s) in mid-to high-16% level. Bills moved within the high-15% to low-20% band with NTBs within the high-15% and 16% band while OMOs traded in a range of 16% to low-20% band. During the week, there was an OMO maturity amounting to ₦993.00bn, increasing the system liquidity to ₦3.62trn. At the money market, positioning stayed constructive with demand for NTBs (Feb-26, May-26, Oct-26, Nov-26, Dec-26,) and OMOs (12-May-26, 19-May-26, 21-Jul-26, 12-Jan-27, 19-Jan-27), as investors moved deliberately across the curve, especially at the long end, signifying a firmer preference favouring short- and long-dated OMO and NTB instruments, balancing yield opportunities with watchful duration extension in a highly liquid financial system.
Nigeria’s currency witnessed a mild decline in the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM), trading from ₦1,345.25 to ₦1,355.42, with a loss of ₦1.16 (-0.09%) and a week-on-week gain of ₦10.78 (+0.79%), closing at ₦1,355.42 (up from ₦1,366.19 the previous week). Intra-week movements reflected a resilient market despite FX pressures, braced by improved liquidity and steady growth in external reserves.
With its external reserves sustaining its upward momentum, rising from $46.59 billion on February 2 to $47.53 billion by February 10, 2026, with a month-to-date gross gain of approximately $936.09 million (+2.01%). Blocked funds increased from $561.03 million to $588.95 million (+4.93%), with an improved blocked reserve ratio of 1.24%, indicating improved FX liquidity, enhanced reserve management efficiency, and continued progress in clearing outstanding obligations.
The recent adjustment by Nigeria’s National Pension Commission (PenCom) to raise equity exposure limits across multiple RSA fund categories is poised to significantly influence the domestic financial market by enhancing liquidity and boosting demand for equities. With caps for RSA Funds I, II, III, and VI increased, most notably from 25–33% to 30–35% for key funds, the move directly addresses prior implementation bottlenecks caused by a shortage of qualifying alternative assets and underutilization of investment limits. By allowing Pension Fund Administrators (PFAs) greater flexibility to deploy long-term retirement capital into equities, the policy is expected to support Nigerian Exchange (NGX) turnover, stabilize valuations, and improve portfolio yields in a high-interest-rate environment. Experts note that pension funds, representing one of Nigeria’s largest institutional pools of investable capital (over ₦26 trillion as of October 2025, with the December 2025 monthly report showing PFA’s equities and govt. securities exposure at approx. 73.9% of the total current net asset value of funds), will likely reallocate portfolios toward higher-return equities and alternative assets, supporting capital market depth while advancing the broader regulatory agenda of diversifying pension portfolios beyond traditional government securities.
The Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) decision to reintegrate licensed BDC operators into the official foreign exchange market with a $150,000 weekly cap per operator is a strategically significant move with multiple implications for market stability and liquidity. By enabling BDCs to source FX directly from authorized dealer banks at prevailing rates, the policy targets a narrowing of the widening gap between official and parallel market rates. The measure is expected to boost liquidity in the retail FX segment, facilitating smoother access for end-users and reducing distortions in pricing, while the accompanying strict Know Your Customer (KYC) reporting, and 24-hour sell-back rules aimed at curbing speculation and prevent hoarding. For the broader financial market, the policy could stabilize the Naira, enhance market depth, and restore confidence in licensed BDCs, many of which faced operational strain since the suspension of FX allocations in 2025, while also improving transparency and compliance across the retail FX ecosystem. Largely, the move combines incremental market participation with strong regulatory oversight, supporting both currency market stabilization and the sustainability of BDC operations.
As the world’s largest single train-oil refinery, known as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, reached its full nameplate capacity of 650,000 barrels per day (bpd), marking a transformative milestone for Nigeria’s energy, economic, and financial landscape. Operationally, the optimisation of the Crude Distillation Unit (CDU) and Motor Spirit (MS) production block, alongside intensive performance testing, demonstrates the refinery’s engineering reliability and steady-state efficiency, enabling up to 75 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) daily for the domestic market. Economically, the refinery’s full operation is projected to reduce Nigeria’s dependence on imported refined products, potentially saving up to an estimated current amount of $10 billion in foreign exchange annually, while generating thousands of direct and indirect jobs and supporting downstream industrial growth in petrochemicals and fertilizers. Impacting the financial markets, the increased domestic supply will reduce import reliance and potentially stabilise fuel prices, improve liquidity in foreign exchange earnings, and strengthen the Naira, while enhancing investor confidence in Nigeria’s energy infrastructure. Broadly, the refinery’s milestone signals a shift toward self-sufficiency, energy security, and GDP growth, positioning Nigeria as a net exporter of refined petroleum products and a regional energy hub, with further upside anticipated from planned capacity expansion to 1.4 million bpd.
Following Pencom’s revised regulation on investment of pension fund assets, and the subsequent earnings release across sectors for the year 2025, the second week of February 2026, witnessed increase in the Nigerian Exchange All-Share Index (ASI), resulting in its steady upward direction, showing improving investor sentiment and broad-based buying activity. The ASI saw a huge uptick from 173,949.88 on Monday to 176,803.24 on Tuesday, by mid-week it advanced to 178,184.54, and increased to 178,625.63 on Thursday, before closing Friday at 182,313.08, marking a cumulative gain over the five trading sessions across key sectors, led by oil & gas, industrial, banking, consumer manufacturing goods, and insurance. Overall, the ASI recorded a modest week-to-date gain of 4.81% (+8363.20 points) and a week-on-week increase of 6.16% (+10585.59 points), lifting the year-to-date return to +17.16%.
During the second week of February 2026, global financial markets were shaped by renewed risk-off sentiment, solid US employment data, and uneven equity performance, as investors grappled with shifting expectations around monetary policy and tech sector volatility. In the United States, stronger-than-expected January payrolls (130,000 jobs added), inflation continued to ease with headline CPI slowing to 2.4% year-on-year (YoY) and core to 2.5% YoY, driven by falling energy and food prices, amidst sticky month-on-month pressures, according to the US Bureau of Labour Statistics, in addition to a 4.3% unemployment rate strengthening the belief that the Federal Reserve will keep rates higher for longer, prompting Treasury yields to rise and easing expectations for rate cuts. Major US equity futures weakened, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones futures sliding about 0.2% amid sell-offs in technology and growth names, while Asian shares also declined, Japan’s Nikkei fell ~1.2%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost ~1.7%, and China’s markets eased, reflecting contagion from Wall Street’s downturn. In Europe, the FTSE 100 fell ~0.7% from recent highs as global risk aversion increased, though a large takeover bid boosted asset management stocks, and growth data suggested softer macro momentum. Meanwhile, the UK economy expanded by just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) in Q4 2025, with growth constrained by weak consumer demand, declining business investment, and a diminishing construction sector, highlighting fragile momentum heading into 2026 despite easing inflation and potential policy support from the Bank of England.
Commodities and credit markets showed mixed signs of stress, with corporate bonds rallying to historically tight spreads amid strong demand for yield. Meanwhile, news of structural policy efforts in the EU to deepen capital markets integration emphasised broader efforts to support investment flows despite market turbulence.
Oil markets experienced a volatile but broadly weaker week, with WTI crude settling at $63.12/bbl. and Brent at $67.96/bbl. on Friday (Feb. 13), extending a second consecutive weekly decline as persistent oversupply concerns outweighed geopolitical risk returns. The week began on Monday with prices firming, as WTI climbed to $64.78/bbl. and Brent to $69.35/bbl., supported by renewed tensions between the US and Iran and optimism surrounding diplomatic talks, which had earlier pushed markets to price in risks of stricter US sanctions on Iranian oil and potential tanker disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. Gains extended into Tuesday, with WTI at $64.03/bbl. and Brent at $68.89/bbl., after the US warned American-flagged vessels to avoid Iranian waters, while uncertainty over India’s Russian crude imports under a new US trade deal added to supply-side risks. On Wednesday, prices approached multi-month highs, with WTI rising to $64.95/bbl. and Brent to $69.79/bbl., as reports suggested Washington could intercept Iranian tankers or deploy additional naval forces if nuclear talks failed. However, sentiment turned lower on Thursday, with WTI easing to $64.22/bbl. and Brent slipping below $69/bbl., as oversupply fears resurfaced following the U.S Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showing a sharp 8.5 million barrel inventory build and International Energy Agency (IEA) projections that global supply will outpace demand, resulting in a sizeable surplus in 2026. By Friday, bearish fundamentals dominated, as the IEA warned of a record average surplus of over 3.7 million barrels per day in 2026 and the fastest inventory growth since the pandemic, while President Donald Trump’s comments that talks with Iran could last up to a month reduced the immediacy of supply disruption risks, reinforcing the view that abundant global production, particularly from OPEC, the US, Canada and Brazil, continues to cap oil prices in spite of lingering Middle East tensions.
Gold closed at $5,065.06/oz on Friday (Feb. 13) after a highly volatile week that began with a sharp rally to $5,046.91/oz on Monday, easing to $5,023.77/oz on Tuesday and peaked near $5,083.24/oz on Wednesday, before tumbling more than 3% to below $4,920/oz on Thursday amid a broad cross-asset unwind that forced investors to liquidate precious metals to meet margin calls. The early-week surge was driven by softer real yields, a weaker US dollar, and renewed safe-haven demand, supported by falling US inflation expectations (NY Fed year-ahead at a six-month low of 3.1%), dovish Federal Reserve signals including openness to one or two rate cuts, and weaker activity indicators such as stalling retail sales, a softer GDP control group, declining job openings and subdued payroll growth, all reinforcing expectations for policy easing and improving the outlook for non-yielding bullion. Gains were later capped by stronger US labour data, with January nonfarm payrolls rising to 130,000.00, unemployment falling to 4.3%, and wage growth accelerating to 3.7%, pushing the first fully priced rate cut to July and lifting Treasury yields. Despite the midweek liquidation-driven correction, bullion remained structurally supported by continuous official sector demand, led by China’s central bank extending gold purchases for a fifteenth consecutive month, alongside persistent geopolitical risks, renewed Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) inflows, and ongoing concerns around currency debasement, leaving gold near multi-week highs despite ending the week modestly lower.
The week ahead features key macroeconomic developments, including the scheduled Nigeria Treasury Bills (NTB) auction on February 18, with a total offer of ₦1.15 trillion across short-, mid-, and long-day tenors, alongside the January 2026 Nigeria Bureau of Statistics (NBS) CPI inflation report, which is expected to show a moderation. In addition to the expected inflow during the week of over ₦2.64 billion from maturing OMOs and NTBs into an already surplus system, which is likely to drive a renewed reinvestment push, potentially triggering fresh OMO auctions or heightened buying interest in the money market.
By: Sandra A. Aghaizu
The market heard war drums,
and lifted its chin to the sky.
But beneath the noise,
tanks were filling quietly…
steel bellies swelling with surplus.
Storm clouds gathered over Hormuz,
yet warehouses spoke louder than thunder.
Fear sparked the flame,
but abundance poured the rain.
And so oil bowed…
not to tension,
but to geopolitical risk.