Between February 11 and 18, 2026, the cryptocurrency market remained weak, dominated by bearish sentiment, macro headwinds, and regulatory ambiguity, with major assets struggling to reclaim lost ground. The period was marked by one of the largest weekly capitulation events in years, as roughly $2.3 billion in realized Bitcoin (BTC) losses were recorded as short-term holders exited positions. BTC briefly traded above $70,000, consolidating near the $68k range and failing to sustain rallies above resistance after several attempts, including a brief move toward the weekend high near $71,800, before slipping back to around ~$67,600 at the time of writing. Market dominance hovered around ~58%, while trading volume and total market capitalization saw modest declines, reflective of persistent sideways pressure and diminishing speculative demand.
Ethereum (ETH) mirrored this risk-off tone, remaining under pressure below $2,000, with price action showing lower support levels tested but modest upticks in short intervals; traders continued to monitor key ETH levels as institutional inflows were lukewarm. Prediction markets have continued to imply downside bias for ETH throughout February, with a non-negligible probability of further correction should market conditions fail to improve.
Regulatory developments during this period focused heavily on the U.S. Crypto CLARITY Act, a proposed framework designed to define digital asset oversight boundaries between financial regulators. Which have continued to experience delays and negotiations over contentious issues such as stablecoin yield and rewards. Despite the White House-led meetings between banking and crypto stakeholders aimed at resolving these disputes, no definitive compromise had been reached, leaving the bill’s progress in limbo, while lawmakers and industry groups continued negotiations into late February. This ongoing impasse has led to regulatory uncertainty for the market and remains a key risk factor for institutional participation. Parallel debates on stablecoin classification and interest-bearing digital assets highlighted growing tension between traditional finance and the crypto sector.
Beyond price and regulatory themes, industry news included operational stresses within the crypto ecosystem: BlockFills, a U.S. crypto lender and institutional liquidity provider, temporarily postponed client deposits and withdrawals amid the recent price downturn, highlighting liquidity challenges facing intermediaries in a risk-off environment.
Meanwhile, in Asia, the Bithumb “Ghost Bitcoin” incident, in which 620,000 BTC were mistakenly distributed due to a failed promotion after an internal error sent 2,000 BTC per user, triggered a full investigation by South Korea’s Financial Supervisory Service. Although 99.7% of the funds were recovered, the episode accelerated a new wave of Asian crypto regulation that will require bank-level internal control systems for digital asset platforms.
As of mid-February 2026, the cryptocurrency market appears to be transitioning from a leverage-driven speculative regime into a filtered environment, resulting in a decidedly bearish short-term reality. The narrative is currently dictated by a 24% collapse in ETF assets under management, falling from $125 billion to $95 billion within 30 days, has stripped away the buy-side support that previously protected the $70,000 psychological floor. While the “Extreme Fear” reading of 12 on the sentiment index and a 36% reduction in derivatives open interest suggest that the market has purged its most dangerous speculative fizz, the technical viewpoint remains bleak as BTC trades significantly below its 200-day EMA of $93,426. Without a legislative breakthrough on the CLARITY Act or a dovish pivot from the Fed, the path of least resistance points toward a decisive break of the $67,261 Fibonacci support, likely triggering a cascade toward the $60,000 cycle-bottom marker before any sustainable recovery can take root. We expect a range-bound “chop” between $60,000 and $72,000, as the market awaits a definitive breakout.
Macro View — The “Fed” Shadow: As February progresses, macroeconomic developments remain pivotal, with markets increasingly driven by U.S. macro signals, and the upcoming signals from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes and Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation data. A dovish stance could ease liquidity conditions and support a rebound toward $70,000 for Bitcoin, while a hawkish tone combined with elevated inflation will likely support renewed downside pressure, potentially forcing another test of the $60,000 support zone.
In summary, the period was defined by continued price weakness, structural volatility across major coins, and ongoing policy uncertainty. Until clearer policy direction or sentiment shifts in response to macroeconomic catalysts, the market remains range-bound, vulnerable to further corrections, and highly sensitive to external economic drivers.
