During the period of February 18 and 25, 2026, the cryptocurrency market was defined by volatility, institutional caution, and key technical support tests. After a turbulent first half of February, the market entered this week with an already fragile sentiment. What followed was a sequence of lower-range consolidation, short-term capitulation, and a modest but technically meaningful rebound into February 25, 2026.
Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) both experienced notable price swings within established February downtrends, while ETF flows, derivatives positioning, and macroeconomic risk appetite shaped directional bias.
BTC entered the period, trading within a broader corrective structure that had dominated much of the month. After earlier declines in the month, it hovered in the mid-$60,000 range, attempting to stabilize above critical horizontal support.
Technical Structure: the $62,000–$64,000 range emerged as a key demand zone, while resistance remained grouped between $66,500 and $68,000, where prior breakdowns occurred. Momentum indicators signalled oversold conditions mid-week before curling upward.
Importantly, BTC did not invalidate the broader months’ correction. Instead, it formed what could be interpreted as a short-term base, though confirmation would require sustained closes above $68,000.
Institutional Flows: Spot BTC ETFs recorded continued net outflows, reflecting institutional risk reset. While not panic-driven, the steady withdrawals reinforced the narrative of capital rotation away from speculative exposure amidst global macroeconomic uncertainty. This implies that the coins’ rebound during the early hours of Feb. 25 is technically driven rather than institutionally led.
ETH mirrored BTC’s path but showed slightly weaker relative strength.
Price Movement:
ETH’s revealed a descending channel structure still intact with strong buyer defense around $1,800, and resistance near $1,950–$2,000, where prior breakdown momentum began.
The ETH/BTC ratio softened slightly during the week, signalling capital preference toward the flagship coin over higher-beta altcoins in uncertain conditions.
Derivatives & Liquidation Scene: The derivatives market played a central role in this week’s volatility. With funding rates fluctuating between neutral and slightly negative, leveraged long liquidations intensified during the Feb 21–23 decline. Open interest compressed mid-week, suggesting deleveraging rather than aggressive short expansion.
This pattern indicates a controlled flush of speculative excess, rather than systemic stress. Such environments often precede short-term technical rebounds, precisely what materialized during the early hours on February 25.
ETF Flows and Institutional Sentiment: Spot ETF data throughout the week reflected continued net outflows from both BTC and ETH, as well as reduced daily trading volumes compared to early February, and institutional caution due to broader macroeconomic uncertainty.
With no evidence of panic liquidation, however, conviction buying was notably absent as institutions appear to be in a “wait-and-see” posture, monitoring macro indicators and liquidity conditions before redeploying capital.
This institutional hesitation capped upside momentum despite technical oversold signals.
Macro Influence & Risk Appetite: The broader financial environment influenced crypto price action in the following notable ways: as it maintained a positive correlation with U.S. equities risk-off sessions early in the week. A relatively firm dollar limited upside momentum in risk assets, and attractive traditional fixed-income yields continued to offer investors alternatives to volatile crypto exposure. Thus, the rebound today appears more tactical than structural.
The period signalled that the crypto market did not stage a decisive reversal, but it did demonstrate resilience.
Key themes that emerged were:
From a technical perspective:
February’s broader correction reflects a repricing rather than structural damage. On-chain fundamentals remain intact, but liquidity flows and macroeconomic events remain the determining factor.
Crypto markets are recalibrating. And in recalibration phases, discipline separates traders from spectators.
By: Sandra A. Aghaizu
February isn’t damage…
it’s the tide retreating,
testing the shoreline.
The seabed is still strong,
but the moon of macro winds
moves the water.
In recalibration,
spectators watch the waves…
the disciplined drop anchor.
