The final week of 2025 has been defined by a liquidity vacuum and a blunt difference between the “digital gold” narrative and traditional safe havens. While equity markets drifted through a muted “Santa Claus Rally,” the digital assets underwent a significant de-risking phase. Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) saw combined outflows of nearly $500 million in the week ending December 29, largely driven by institutional treasurers engaged in “window dressing,” settling positions to lock in annual performance metrics ahead of the new fiscal year.
In 2025, Bitcoin matured into a strategically weaponized asset. Record-breaking spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows propelled BTC to a new all-time high of $126,080 in October. However, the latter half of the year transitioned into a corrective “bear phase” as the market absorbed excessive leverage built during the summer. BTC enters 2026 roughly 30% below its peak, currently defending the psychological support at $87,000.
Ethereum followed a similar path but faced steeper structural headwinds; despite the successful Fusaka upgrade in early December, which optimized Layer-2 scaling, ETH struggled to hold the $3,000 level, ending the year in a persistent corrective structure as institutional capital rotated toward more niche, yield-bearing assets.
The window between Christmas and New Year’s Eve presented a fascinating technical variance. Despite BTC trading at price levels (~$87k) that would have signaled euphoria in previous years, the Fear & Greed Index plunged to 24 (Extreme Fear).
As of December 31, 2025, a major divergence in corporate positioning emerged as Japan’s Metaplanet solidified its “Bitcoin Standard” by acquiring 4,279 BTC, bringing its total to 35,102 BTC, the 4th largest public holding globally. Conversely, Prenetics abandoned its BTC treasury strategy to focus on its IM8 health brand, highlighting a trend where non-crypto firms are prioritizing core operations over speculative reserves during volatility.
The most significant “Whale” Warning signal arise from an $11B “OG” whale who rotated $330M in spot ETH into $748M of leveraged long positions across BTC, ETH, and SOL. While this indicates high conviction for Q1 2026 recovery, it introduces systemic risk: the whale’s $598M ETH long has a liquidation floor at $2,143. A drop to this level could trigger a “liquidation cascade,” dragging the entire market into a secondary correction.
While 2025 ends on a subdued note, exchange reserves are at their lowest levels since 2018. And the “active supply” of BTC is thinning as sovereign nations begin discussions on Strategic Bitcoin Reserves. The current year-end weakness reflects a “clearing out” of leverage speculators, setting the stage for a potential Supply Shock rally in Q1 2026.
We expect sideways consolidation between $87,000 and $89,500 for the next 48 hours. The real move will likely occur on January 2nd or 3rd, once the “New Year capital” begins to flow back into ETFs.
Level | Significance | Action Required |
$94,300 | Major Resistance | Breakout target for a Q1 trend reversal. |
$90,000 | Psychological Pivot | Reclaiming this is essential for bullish momentum. |
$87,000 | Immediate Support | Must hold to avoid a slide to $80k. |
$80,500 | Local Minimum | The absolute “floor” for the current corrective wave. |
Solana (SOL) is an asset to watch, transitioning from a “meme coin” hub to an institutional powerhouse. The 2026 Solana thesis rests on three pillars:
The current market consolidation is a “filtering event.” As weaker ideas fade, liquidity is pooling around assets with production-ready infrastructure. Solana is no longer just a “fast chain;” it is positioning itself as the on-chain NASDAQ. While the short-term prospect (Q1-Q2) suggests a potential washout toward $75–$80 if support fails, the second half of 2026 targets a bullish recovery toward $235–$320.
By: Sandra A. Aghaizu
As the year faded, liquidity ran thin.
Stocks floated on a soft Santa rally,
While crypto felt the chill.
Bitcoin and Ethereum shed weight…
Not from fear, but from tidy balance sheets.
Capital stepped aside,
Waiting for the year to turn.
