The final week of January 2026 showcased a resilient and dynamic Nigerian financial market, supported by robust investor appetite across both sovereign and money market debt instruments. The Debt Management Office (DMO) conducted the inaugural Federal Government of Nigeria’s bond auction of the year, held on January 26 witnessed subscriptions of ₦2.25 trillion against an offer of ₦900 billion, with mid to long-dated papers of 7- to 10-year tenors, and bid-to-cover ratios as high as 3.65x reflecting both confidence in medium- to long-term debt and investors’ demand. Complementing this, OMO bill auctions of January 29 and 30 revealed selective but sustained demand for long-day instruments, with yields moderating amidst improved liquidity and cautious duration positioning. In the secondary market, bonds and money-market instruments experienced measured yield compression, while the Naira strengthened slightly, supported by rising external reserves.
Beyond Nigeria, global markets navigated volatility in commodities, currencies, and equities, with oil and gold reflecting heightened risk sentiment, and central banks maintaining broadly stable policy stances. Together, these developments highlight a market balancing liquidity, yield optimization, and risk in an evolving domestic and global macro-economic environment, setting the stage for continued capital market engagement and strategic investment positioning in early 2026. Against this backdrop, commodities, including West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent, closed on Friday at $64.61 and $70.55 per barrel, respectively. Gold prices reached new levels above $5,100/oz during the period before closing at $4,886.71/oz.
Interbank liquidity opened with a surplus of over ₦1.87 trillion on Friday, marking a week-to-date decline of 52.2%, peaking at ₦6.12 trillion during the week after it opened at ₦3.91 trillion. Money market rates were steady through midweek before witnessing a sharp change, peaking at 26.07% (+3.57%) and 26.36% (+3.52%) for the Open Repo Rate (OPR) and Overnight (O/N) rate, respectively, where it closed. In the currency market, the Naira traded betweena band of $/₦1,367.00 and $/₦1,422.50 during the week, closing at $/₦1,386.55 on Friday.
The first FGN Bond auction conducted by the DMO on January 26, 2026, recorded strong investor demand across all maturities, with total subscriptions of ₦2.25 trillion against a ₦900 billion offer, reflecting sustained appetite for long-dated sovereign instruments despite declining marginal rates. The auction featured reopened papers: FGN 18.50% Feb-2031, FGN 19.00% Feb-2034, and FGN 22.60% Jan-2035, with 7-, 10-, and 10-tenors, respectively. Demand was strong across the board, with the bid-to-cover ratio for two 10-year papers at 2.51x and 3.65x compared to 1.71x for the 7-year tenor. As a result, the allotment to offer substantially exceeded original issuance sizes, at 1.72x, 2.85x, and 1.38x for the dual 10- and 7-year tenors. In comparison with the last auction in December 2025, using the 7-tenor close at 17.30%, the reopened bonds stop rates closed mildly higher, at 17.62% (+32bps), 17.50% (+20bps), and 17.52% (+32bps) for the Feb.-2031, Feb.-2034 and Jan.-2035 paper correspondingly. This indicates the DMO’s resolve to utilize demand and firmly control management cost in line with the secondary market reality. Overall, the outcome highlights robust liquidity, strong confidence in medium- to long-term sovereign debt instruments, and growing acceptance of yield compression along the sovereign curve.
BONDS TENOR | FEBRUARY 2031 | FEBRUARY 2034 | JANUARY 2035 |
MATURITY DATE | 21-02-2031 | 21-02-2034 | 29-01-2035 |
TENORS | 7-YEAR | 10-YEAR | 10-YEAR |
AMOUNT OFFERED (₦’B) | 300.00 | 400.00 | 200.00 |
SUBSCRIPTION (₦’B) | 514.45 | 1,006.86 | 731.399 |
BID RANGE (%) | 15.8500 – 18.5000 | 16.0000 – 19.4000 | 16.0000 – 25.9000 |
AMOUNT ALLOTTED (₦’B) | 398.19 | 576.33 | 570.16 |
NON-COMPETITIVE ALLOTMENT (₦’B) | 17.50 | 113.22 | – |
STOP RATES (%) | 17.6200 | 17.5000 | 17.5200 |
LAST AUCTION 7-YEAR STOP RATES(%) | 17.3000 | 17.3000 | 17.3000 |
The January 20, 2026, OMO auction result showed a strong preference for long-day bills amidst the excess system liquidity. A sustained investor appetite for mid- to long-tenor risk-free instruments, was witnessed, as the total bids outpaced the total offer by 4.84x. The auction featured 203- and 245-day tenors, the longest OMO bills issued so far in January 2026. Per tenor-wise, the 245-day bill attracted a mega-demand with a 7.91x bid-to-offer ratio, cleared at 7.16x, reflecting strong duration demand amid expectations of yield upward repricing. The 203-day bill recorded a modest 1.77x bid-to-offer, with 1.63x sold. Stop rates settled at 19.39% for the 245-day and 19.38%for the 203-day, representing a mild 4bps uptick from the previous auction, signalling a cautious repricing rather than a sharp shift in the yield curve. Overall, the aggressive oversubscription and elevated allotments highlight investors’willingness to lock in attractive returns with effective yield at 22.29% and 21.70% for 245- and 203-day bills, respectively. This reinforced the CBN’s liquidity mop-up objective, keeping short-end rates and management costs largely anchored despite the increased issuance.
The latest January 30, 2026, OMO auction result showed strong investor appetite for long-day instruments amid declining stop rates, signaling improving market liquidity and reduced cost of borrowing. With the 207-day bill not allotted, despite having a matching volume bid, whereas the 354-day tenor was oversubscribed at 7.21x its offer, with 7.02x sold, showing that investors remain selective, favouring longer tenors.
AUCTION DATE | TENOR | OFFER (₦‘B) | BIDS (₦‘B) | TOTAL SALE (₦‘B) | STOP RATES (%) | PREVIOUS TENOR STOP RATES (%) |
29-01-2026 | 208-DAY | 300.00 | 1,358.18 | 85.00 | 17.2000 | 19.3800 |
348-DAY | 300.00 | 4,570.04 | 3,700.00 | 17.2500 | 19.3900 | |
30-01-2026 | 207-DAY | 300.00 | 396.14 | 0.00 | 0.0000 | 17.2000 |
354-DAY | 300.00 | 2,165.96 | 2,108.47 | 17.2500 | 17.2500 |
The secondary market witnessed a mix of moderating yields across the bonds and the money market. Following the recent FGN Bond and OMO bill issuance, yields traded between a band of mid-17% to low-18% levels on 2026s-2035s bonds, the money-market tilted bearish on price with selling pressure at the long end and across the curve. Bond yields inch up from mid-16% to high 17% level, while bills moved within the mid-16% to mid-23% band,reinforcing a higher-for-longer rate sentiment. Renewed supply in short- to long-tenor papers, particularly the 2026s–2037s, were met with selective and resilient demand, particularly the2027s, 2029s, 2030s, 2031s, 2032s, 2033s, 2034s, and 2035s, while interest for the 2053 maturity remained low. In the money market, positioning stayed constructive with recent issuance demand as investors moved deliberately across the curve, signifying a firmer preference favouring short- and long-dated OMO and NTB instruments, balancing yield opportunities with vigilant duration extension in a liquidity-rich market.
The Naira appreciated modestly in the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM), from ₦1,418.55 to ₦1,386.55, with a gain of ₦21.96 (+1.55%) and ₦37.67 (+2.47%) week-on-week, closing at ₦1,386.55 (up from ₦1,421.63 the previous week). Intra-week movements reflected a resilient market despite FX pressures, braced by improved liquidity and steady growth in external reserves.
Nigeria’s external reserves maintained their upward momentum, rising from $45.57 billion on January 02 to $46.18 billion by January 29, 2026, a month-to-date gross gain of approximately $610.38 million (+1.34%). Blocked funds declined from $563.52 million to $546.40 million (-3.04%), with a blocked reserve ratio at 1.18%, indicating improved FX liquidity, enhanced reserve management efficiency, and continued progress in clearing outstanding obligations.
According to the disclosed statement issued on Tuesday by the Special Adviser to the President on Energy, Olu Verheijen, the Federal Government’s ₦501 billion inaugural Power Sector Bond under the Presidential Power Sector Debt Reduction Programme achieved full subscription. Indicating strong investor confidence in reforms aimed at resolving long-standing liquidity challenges in Nigeria’s electricity sector. The Series 1 issuance, executed by NBET Finance Company Plc, comprised ₦300 billion raised from the capital market and ₦201 billion allocated to participating generation companies, and will fund about 50% of the ₦827.16 billion negotiated settlement for verified receivables owed to GenCos for electricity supplied between February 2015 and March 2025. Five generating power firms including, First Independent Power Limited, Geregu Power Plc, Ibom Power Company Limited, Mabon Limited, and Niger Delta Power Holding Company Limited, have already executed settlement agreements with the Nigeria Bulk Electricity Trading Plc, with payments to be made in four phased instalments. The programme is designed to restore liquidity, unlock fresh investment, and reset market confidence, with industry leaders noting that clearing legacy debts will enable immediate capacity expansion, including new projects such as the second phase of Egbin Power Plant, thereby supporting a more financially sustainable and reliable electricity market.
The Nigerian Exchange All-Share Index (ASI) traded within a narrow range over the week, reflecting a largely sideways market with limited directional conviction. After a mild uptick from 165,518.00 on Monday to 165,714.00 on Tuesday, the index dipped to 165,164.00 on Wednesday, slightly increasing to 165,527.00 on Thursday before closing Friday at 165,372.00, signalling cautious investor sentiment as gains were quickly met with profit-taking, resulting in marginal net movement across key sectors, including consumer manufacturing goods, industrial, insurance, oil & gas, and banking. Overall, the ASI recorded a modest week-to-date decline of 0.09% (-146.00 points) and a week-on-week loss of 0.08% (-140.00 points), lifting the year-to-date return to +6.37%.
In the week ending January 30, 2026, global financial markets were marked by mixed equity performance, central bank policy stability, currency swings, and continued commodity volatility. The U.S. and European equities were mixed as investors digested earnings, macroeconomic data, and policy uncertainty amidst speculation over the next U.S. Federal Reserve Chair leading to market rallying, with the MSCI World Index edging slightly higher while U.S. futures softened toward the week’s end. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies weakened significantly, with Bitcoin falling to around $82,300, influenced by speculation around a potentially more hawkish Fed leadership and weaker risk appetite. Markets also reflected a stronger U.S. dollar despite declining during the week and rising U.S. Treasury yields on bets of less aggressive monetary stimulus. In Europe, robust data showed the Eurozone grew by an unexpected 0.3% in Q4 2025, supporting the region’s economic resilience with the European Central Bank (ECB) expected to hold rates steady at around 2.0%. Emerging markets rallied strongly, driven by a weaker dollar and rising commodity prices, lifting the MSCI Emerging Markets Index nearly 11% as local currencies like the South African rand and Brazilian real strengthened and local currency bonds attracted inflows. Central banks broadly maintained policy norms: the Federal Reserve Bank at 3.50%-3.75%, the Bank of England around 3.75%, the European Central Bank at 2.0%, and the Bank of Japan at 0.75%, reflecting a broad pause in major rate moves while markets look for future direction. In general, risk sentiment was shaped by geopolitical tensions, central bank pauses, and shifts in monetary expectations that supported emerging assets but constrained broad global equity advances.
Oil prices experienced heightened volatility in the last week of January, driven by an interaction of geopolitical risks, weather-related supply disruptions, and shifting trade dynamics between January 26 and 30, 2026. On Monday, Brent slipped to $65.71/bbl while WTI fell to $60.82/bbl, as gains from a severe US winter storm and tensions in the Middle East were offset by expectations of rising Kazakh exports and lingering trade uncertainties. Prices rebounded on Tuesday, with Brent climbing to $66.82/bbl and WTI to $61.87/bbl, despite increased U.S. production of almost 2 million barrels per day (mbpd); about 15% of national outputwas disrupted by freezing conditions. The rally extended on Wednesday, lifting Brent to $68.19/bbl and WTI to $63.14/bbl, supported by falling US crude inventories, a weaker dollar, and continued production outages. By Thursday, geopolitical risk premiums intensified following renewed US threats of military action against Iran, pushing Brent to $70.92/bbl and WTI to $65.64/bbl, the highest levels since September. Nevertheless, profit-taking set in on Friday, with Brent easing to $70.55/bbl and WTI to $64.61/bbl, though both benchmarks remained on track for their strongest monthly performance since mid-2023, strengthened by persistent tensions around Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, supply disruptions in Kazakhstan, and weather-driven production losses in the US.
Prices mirrored broader commodity volatility in late January, tracking heightened geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty, as safe-haven flows into gold signalled elevated global risk sentiment through January 26-30, 2026. Bullion surged above $5,080/oz on Monday, reflecting investor anxiety over escalating trade tensions between the US, Canada, and China, Middle East instability, and renewed fears of a US government shutdown, while markets also priced in a steady Federal Reserve policy stance. Momentum intensified on Tuesday, with gold hitting fresh record highs above $5,200/oz amid a sharp dollar decline and policy uncertainty in Washington, supporting expectations of sustained capital rotation into real assets and the U.S President’s announcement of the nominated Federal Reserve Chair, prices rallied.
However, on Wednesday, gold printed at $5,281/oz. Between Thursday and Friday, profit-taking set in, pulling gold back toward the $4,740–$4,987/oz range after touching highs above $5,600/oz, as the Federal Reserve held rates unchanged, in addition to geopolitical risks around Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and new US tariff actions remaining elevated. Overall, the strong monthly performance of over 20% gainsshows persistent risk premiums in global markets, a dynamic that continues to support oil price resilience despite short-term corrections driven by positioning and macro policy signals.
The week ahead brings developing macroeconomic updates. Locally, the scheduled 3rd NTB auction in 2026 with a total offer size of ₦1.15 trillion for the 91-, 182-, and 364-day bills, its result is crucial to yield direction and investors’ demand. In addition to the expected inflows of over ₦1.70 trillion in maturing OMOand NTB bills, leading to increased reinvestment pressure, potentially prompting fresh OMO(s) auction.
Regionally, Ghana’s rate cut is likely to ease borrowing costs, stimulate domestic lending, and support economic growth, which can boost investor confidence. For neighbouring West African markets, especially those with trade or investment links to Ghana, which may attract cross-border portfolio flows seeking higher yields relative to borrowing costs, slightly lifting equity and bond markets. However, the impact could be tempered by currency volatility and inflation concerns, as lower rates may pressure the Cedi and influence regional capital allocation decisions.
