The Giant of Africa’s financial markets remained firm in the week of October 27th to 31st, 2025, despite the FGN Bond Auction conducted by the Debt Management Office (DMO), as investors balanced local and global macro-economic pressures with shifting global trends. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) continued its firm stance on price control with minimal Open Market Operations (OMO) sales. At the same time, the DMO managed yields at the Bond Auction, compressing them below their previous level to regulate management cost amidst robust demand. The Naira stayed steady in the official window, aided by stronger FX inflows and improved external reserves. In the bond market, moderate demand across mid-tenor instruments demonstrated investor rotation with duration, anchoring yields in the high-15% and low-16% levels.
Nigeria’s announced plan to raise $500 million debut Sovereign Sukuk Bond in the international market is well timed, as the Country exited the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) Grey List. Oil prices ran bearish, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) falling by 1.61% at $60.51, and Brent dropping by 2.34% at $64.33 per barrel, pressured by renewed supply and trade-deal concerns. Meanwhile, gold marginally gained (+0.41%) to close at $4,021.14/oz as investors weighed the Fed’s rate cut amidst geopolitical concerns. The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) All-Share Index fell week-to-date by 0.88% to close at 154,126.00 points, buoyed by profit-taking. Together, these dynamics reinforced a broadly stable outlook for Nigeria’s financial system as the month ended.
Interbank liquidity opened with a surplus of over ₦2.40 trillion on Friday, marking a week-to-date decline of 34.6% after opening at 3.70 trillion on Monday. Money market rates mildly changed, with the Open Repo Rate (OPR) steady at 24.50% and Overnight (O/N) peaking at 24.86%, before closing at 24.50% and 24.86%. In the currency market, the Naira traded between $/₦1,415.01 and $/₦1,457.00 during the week and closed at $/₦1,421.73 on Friday.
The results of the first Q4 2025 FGN bond auction conducted by the DMO indicated continued confidence in sovereign credit, besides improving macro-policy signals and renewed interest. The 7-year tenor saw exceptionally robust demand, with subscriptions reaching over 8.1x against offer, highlighting a clear preference for long duration as investors position for another rate easing. Meanwhile, the 5-year bond recorded a respectable but more measured demand of 1.6x, suggesting that investors still weigh short-term risks. The aggressive bid range across both maturities points to competitive pricing dynamics, driven by both institutional domestic participation and expectations of downward rate adjustment over the coming months.
The downward movement in stop rates to 15.832%(-16.8bps) and 15.850% (-35bps) on the 5- and 7-year individually, signals yield compression consistent with an improved market sentiment in addition to expected moderation in monetary tightening. However, the DMO’s decision to allot below the offer amount in the 5-year paper and above offer volume in the 7-year tenor reflects a disciplined issuance approach, prioritizing strategic funding costs despite excessive liquidity conditions. This sale reinforces a subtle pivot toward a more accommodative yield environment over the medium term. Yet, near-term curves will likely remain sensitive to macro-economic outcomes, FX reforms, and liquidity management by the CBN. Overall, the results indicate strengthening confidence in Nigeria’s macro-economic trajectory, improving risk perception, and a market gradually pricing in a flexible yield outlook in the near term.
FGN Bond Auction Result October 27, 2025
BONDS TENOR | AUGUST 2030 | JUNE 2032 |
AUCTION DATE | 27-10-2025 | 27-10-2025 |
SETTLEMENT DATE | 29-10-2025 | 29-10-2025 |
MATURITY DATE | 27-08-2030 | 25-06-2032 |
TENORS | 5-YEAR | 7-YEAR |
AMOUNT OFFERED (₦) | 130 BILLION | 130 BILLION |
SUBSCRIPTION (₦) | 212.662 BILLION | 1,058.288 BILLION |
AMOUNT ALLOTTED (₦) | 87.798 BILLION | 225.973 BILLION |
RANGE OF BIDS (%) | 15.0000 – 16.5000 | 14.5000 – 17.4000 |
STOP RATES (%) | 15.8320 | 15.8500 |
PREVIOUS STOP RATES (%) | 16.0000 | 16.2000 |
The CBN’s latest OMO auction result showed a stark divergence in demand and policy intent, highlighting the Bank’s continued yield control stance. It featured a rare issuance of short bills (46- and 60-day), the shortest-day auctioned this year. The 46-day bill attracted weak interest of 24.7% against its offer amount with nil allotment, reflecting the unwillingness to accept high rates. In contrast, the 60-day tenor drew demand of 95.06% against its offered amount, with a minimal sale of 0.0037x, signaling the Apex bank’s measured approach to issuance consistent with its price-stability objective. The stop rate for the 60-day bill printed sharply higher at 21.70% (+181bps) compared to the previous 252-day, but notably lower than the last 84-day (-474bps) at 21.69% and effective yield of 22.50% (-565bps), indicating a controlled downward repricing of short-term yields amidst elevated surplus conditions. Generally, the outcome reflects price discipline priority over volume.
OMO Auction – October 31, 2025
TENOR | AUCTION DATE | OFFER (₦‘B) | BIDS (₦‘B) | RANGE OF BIDS (%) | STOP RATES (%) | PREVIOUS TENOR STOP RATES (%) | TOTAL SALE (₦‘B) |
46-DAY | 31-10-2025 | 300.00 | 74.10 | 22.9900-24.7400 | 0.0000 | 19.4000 | 0.00 |
60-DAY | 31-10-2025 | 300.00 | 285.18 | 21.6975-24.9900 | 21.6975 | 19.8900 | 1.11 |
The secondary market sustained a bullish tone, with yields holding within the high-15% to low-16% band as renewed supply in short- to mid-tenor papers, particularly across the 2027–2035 bond maturities, was absorbed by firm demand, creating a competitive bid-ask environment. In the money market, positioning remained constructive, with investors rotating both into short- and long-dated OMO bills (18-Nov, 25-Nov, 7-Apr, 23-Jun, 30-Jun) and NTBs (5-Feb, 19-Feb, 20-Aug, 8-Oct, 22-Oct), signalling a measured appetite for duration amid evolving liquidity conditions. Overall, quotes were largely balanced, though modestly wider offers emerged as participants tested market depth.
Nigeria’s removal from the FATF grey list appears to strengthen investor confidence, improve cross-border capital flows, and reduce the perceived compliance and sovereign risk. In the financial markets, this supports a positive reassessment of Nigeria’s risk premium and may gradually attract foreign portfolio inflows, especially into fixed-income and banking assets. While yields may not adjust immediately due to current monetary policy and inflation pressures, the delisting creates a medium-term case for lower borrowing costs and modest yield compression as sentiment improves in addition to open liquidity channels.
The nation’s parliamentary approval of President Tinubu’s $2.85 billion external borrowing plan, including the country’s inaugural $500 million sovereign Sukuk, highlights a strategic push to diversify funding sources, strengthen market confidence, and manage refinancing risk ahead of the Eurobond maturity in November 2025. By pursuing a blend of Eurobond issuance, Sukuk financing, loan syndication, and potential bridge facilities, the government is broadening its investor base and signalling disciplined liability management rather than drawing down scarce FX reserves. While the move adds to external debt obligations, the refinancing component limits net exposure, offering support for FX stability and fiscal credibility. In the near term, these yields may see a mild upward bias from increased borrowing optics, but improved external liquidity prospects and diversified funding channels would anchor Nigerian debt market sentiment and enhance investor confidence.
The Naira traded largely stable at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM), appreciating slightly from $/₦1,452.79 to $/₦1,421.73, with a week-to-date gain of about ₦31.05 (+2.14%). The narrow trading range indicates improved FX liquidity and steady reserve growth, supported by the CBN’s tight monetary stance and proactive interventions.
Nigeria’s external reserves continued their upward momentum, rising from $42.35 billion on September 30 to $43.17 billion on October 30, marking a cumulative gain of approximately $819 million month-to-date (+1.93%). An increase in liquid reserves drove the increase. At the same time, blocked funds declined from $676.65 million to $618.63 million, reducing the blocked reserve ratio from 1.60% to 1.43%, emphasizing improved FX liquidity, reserve management efficiency, and progress in clearing outstanding obligations.
The U.S. policy shift carries meaningful implications for Nigeria across capital flows, FX stability, and yield competitiveness as a cautious Fed, after cutting rates, signals a slower global easing cycle, which keeps U.S. yields relatively attractive. For Nigeria, this means continued pressure to maintain elevated domestic interest rates to compete for portfolio inflows and support the Naira, especially as inflation remains sticky and external buffers recover. The halted Federal Reserve balance-sheet runoff may ease global liquidity strains, potentially improving emerging-market appetite, but any delay in further U.S. cuts could restrain foreign portfolio investment into Nigerian fixed-income markets in the near term. Strategically, Nigeria benefits where U.S. yields drift lower, as forward markets price in further cuts, providing an opening for increased foreign inflows, lower debt-service stress on Eurobonds, and more room for the CBN to gradually recalibrate its tightening posture. In the interim, Nigeria’s continued commitment to credible fiscal and monetary reforms will further strengthen investor confidence, deepen FX market transparency, and support attractive competitive real yields in the global financial environment.
The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) All-Share Index declined through the week and rebounded (+449.18 points) on Friday, a week-to-date decline of 0.88% and 1,366.00 points from 155,492.00 to 154,126.00, during the week ended October 31, 2025. The bearish run was driven by profit-taking in banking, industrial, and energy stocks. Conversely, Aradel Holdings Plc and MTN Nigeria Communications Plc. declared interim dividends of ₦10 and ₦5, respectively, for Q3, 2025.
Crude oil prices experienced a volatile week, with WTI opening Monday at $61.55 per barrel and Brent at $65.87, pressured by concerns over ample supply despite the optimism surrounding a potential US-China trade deal. Early-week gains from the announcement of a “substantial framework” for trade were overshadowed by ongoing market surpluses and US sanctions on Russian oil giants, Rosneft and Lukoil. By Tuesday, WTI and Brent fell over 1% amid signals that OPEC+ may raise output in December, with Saudi Arabia pushing to regain market share. Midweek, prices rebounded modestly; WTI to $60.88 and Brent to $65.16, after EIA data showed a larger-than-expected 6.9 million-barrel decline in US crude inventories and early disruptions in Russian oil shipments to India. Thursday saw renewed pressure, with WTI dropping to $60.44 and Brent to $64.75, as markets factored in robust production from the US, North Sea, and OPEC+ ahead of the scheduled meeting, with record volumes of oil in tankers at sea. By Friday, WTI settled near $60.51 and Brent at $64.33, heading for a third consecutive monthly decline, amid rising global output, anticipated OPEC+ increases of 137,000 barrels per day in December, strong Saudi and US production, tempered demand expectations, and a firmer US dollar. Despite the existing pressures, China’s agreement to resume US energy purchases, including potential Alaskan oil and gas deals, provided some support amidst a well-supplied market.
Gold prices opened the week at $4,004.71 per ounce on Monday, falling to $3,944.62 on Tuesday as optimism over a US-China trade deal reduced safe-haven demand and traders took profits. The metal rebounded to $4,008.07 on Wednesday despite bargain hunting ahead of the Federal Reserve’s widely anticipated 25-basis-point rate cut. Thursday saw a slight dip to $3,990.00 as markets factored in tempered expectations for additional Fed easing. It closed at $4,021.14 on Friday, marking a WTD gain of 0.41% as investors digested the finalized US-China trade truce, which included a one-year deal on rare earths and critical minerals, tariff reductions, and resumed soybean purchases. Despite the week’s volatility, gold remained up roughly 50% year-to-date, supported by strong central bank buying, including 220 tons in Q3, led by Kazakhstan and Brazil’s first purchase in over four years. Geopolitical tensions and currency concerns kept the metal on track for a third consecutive monthly gain.
With the recent rate compression at the October 2025 FGN Bond auction, analysts believe that a rally in bond yields might be delayed in the near term, notwithstanding the bullish market sentiment. Despite improved liquidity conditions, incoming inflows of over ₦1.7trn are expected from OMO and NTB maturities in the first week of November. This surge will potentially drive interest in the scheduled Nigeria Treasury Bill (NTB) Auction on Wednesday, with a total offer volume of ₦650 billion. The outcome will be a key guide to rate direction as the quarter winds up. In addition to OMO(s) auction by the Central Bank to absorb excess cash and maintain yield discipline across the curve.
Globally, macroeconomic pressures will be a determinant of market sentiment, coupled with the adjustment of the market to the impact of the Fed rate cut, sustaining the risk appetite for emerging-market instruments.
By: Sandra A. Aghaizu
Liquidity rises like a restless sea,
₦1.7 trillion flowing through quiet channels.
Yields stand still…anchored, uncertain,
As the Central Bank trims its sails to tame the drift.
The NTB auction glimmers on the horizon,
A compass pointing where rates may roam,
While whispers from the Fed stir distant waves
Reminding us, the tide always turns.
And in the rhythm of markets, nothing stays still for long.
