As Nigeria navigated a complex fiscal and macroeconomic landscape in the week of November 3rd, 2025, developments emphasize the delicate balancing act between funding needs and market stability. President Bola Tinubu’s call for an additional ₦1.15 trillion in domestic borrowing set the tone for a week of strategic debt management, featuring oversubscribed Eurobond tranches and the mixed Nigerian Treasury Bill (NTB) and Open Market Operation (OMO) auction outcomes that highlighted investors’ selective appetite for higher-yield, long-tenor instruments. Meanwhile, robust foreign interest in sovereign debt, stability in the Naira, and growing external reserves reinforced confidence in the country’s credit profile, even as ample liquidity and cautious yield repricing shaped the domestic fixed-income space. The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) All-Share Index fell week-to-date by 2.71% to close at 149,569.00 points, driven by increased profit-taking. In addition to persistent volatility in oil, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell by 1.43% at $59.84, and Brent dropped by 1.53% at $63.54 per barrel, pressured by renewed supply and sanction concerns. Gold marginally declined by 0.22% to close at $4,000.98/oz as investors weighed trade tensions and macroeconomic data. Coupled with rising U.S. Treasury yields influencing global capital flows, the week’s performance demonstrated how local and international forces unite to test investor sentiment, shape portfolio decisions, and amplify the need for vigilant monetary and fiscal calibration as the year draws to a close. Together, these dynamics reinforced a broadly stable outlook for Nigeria’s financial system as the month ended.
Interbank liquidity opened with a surplus of over ₦5.06 trillion on Friday, marking a week-to-date increase of 65.6% after opening at 3.05 trillion on Monday. Money market rates mildly changed, with the Open Repo Rate (OPR) steady at 24.50% and Overnight (O/N) peaking at 24.92%, before closing at 24.50% and 24.79%. In the currency market, the Naira traded between $/₦1,430.00 and $/₦1,446.00 during the week and closed at $/₦1,436.57 on Friday.
President Bola Tinubu’s request for an additional ₦1.15 trillion in domestic borrowing to fund the 2025 budget deficit came ahead of subsequent market activities such as the Eurobond launch, OMO, and NTB auction, indicating early fiscal repositioning to manage Nigeria’s widened ₦14 trillion deficit. The move highlights the government’s reliance on domestic debt markets to sustain expenditure plans. Although the request was aimed at stabilizing fiscal execution, it also foreshadowed increased debt issuance pressure, potentially driving higher yields in subsequent auctions.
The CBN OMO auction on November 4, 2025, offered a total of ₦600 billion for the 56- and 84-day tenors, with a focus on short-dated instruments. The 56-day bill recorded weak demand, attracting bids of only 0.23x, resulting in a sale of 10% of the offer at a stop rate of 21.69%, nearly unchanged from the previous 60-day bill (21.70%), indicating a muted appetite for shorter-day paper. In contrast, the 84-day bill saw robust interest, with bids totalling 3.69x and an allotment of 81.2% on offer at a marginal cleared rate of 21.84% (+14.3bps), reflecting strong investor preference for slightly long day tenors that offer higher returns. The respective effective yields were 22.43% (-7bps) and 22.99% (+49bps). Notably, the bid range for both tenors highlighted a market actively seeking yield repricing, while the overall allotment pattern showed guarded liquidity absorption and yield control by the CBN amidst selective investor participation.
The results of the OMO auction on November 7, 2025, mirrored a clear investor preference for long-day instruments, with the 84-day bill heavily oversubscribed at 4.23x the offer, resulting in a 3.74x allotment. In contrast, the 53-day bill performed low with a weak demand of approximately 0.11x the offer, which was sold. Stop rates declined mildly at 21.64% (-5bps) and 21.83% (-1bps) for the 53- and 84-day tenors, respectively. The outcome emphasized the Apex Bank’s continued yield control stance. Remarkably, both auction instruments had similar maturity dates.
OMO Auction – November 4 & 7, 2025
TENOR | AUCTION DATE | OFFER (₦‘B) | BIDS (₦‘B) | RANGE OF BIDS (%) | STOP RATES (%) | PREVIOUS TENOR STOP RATES (%) | TOTAL SALE (₦‘B) |
56-DAY | 04-11-2025 | 300.00 | 68.00 | 21.5700-23.5500 | 21.6900 | 21.6975 | 30.00 |
84-DAY | 04-11-2025 | 300.00 | 1,107.10 | 21.3900-24.4500 | 21.8400 | – | 243.60 |
53-DAY | 07-11-2025 | 300.00 | 32.00 | 21.6400-21.6400 | 21.6400 | 21.6900 | 32.00 |
81-DAY | 07-11-2025 | 300.00 | 1,271.80 | 21.5000-23.4400 | 21.8300 | 21.8400 | 1,121.80 |
Amid ample system liquidity, the NTB auction conducted by the Debt Management Office (DMO) on November 5th, 2025, produced a mixed outcome. The 1-year bill recorded a strong bid-to-cover ratio of 2.52, in contrast to the subdued demand for the short- and mid-tenor bills, which had ratios of 0.10 and 0.31, respectively. Allotment to offer rates stood at 31.2%, 10.19%, and 112.2% for the 91-, 182-, and 364-day bills, respectively, with an overall sale of 84% on the total offered and 46% on the total demand. The DMO largely maintained stop rates for the short- and mid-tenor bills, while the 364-day bill saw a modest decline to 16.04% (-10bps), signaling a cautious approach to yield control. Effective yields were recorded at 15.91%, 16.79%, and 19.10% (-14bps) for the 91-, 182-, and 364-day bills, correspondingly. Compared with the previous auction, the bid range exhibited a similar trend, peaking at 20.00%. While demand for the short-tenor bill improved, interest in the mid-tenor bill declined, although the long-tenor bill attracted strong bids.
In conclusion, the robust and skewed demand for the 1-year NTB indicates a persistent investor preference for higher-yield, longer-duration instruments, whilst the muted appetite for short- and mid-tenor bills suggests caution toward shorter maturities. The overall allotment to total offer demonstrates price discipline, rate anchor priority over volume, despite robust demand.
NTB Auction Result November 5, 2025
AUCTION DATE | 05-11-2025 | 05-11-2025 | 05-11-2025 |
ALLOTMENT DATE | 06-11-2025 | 06-11-2025 | 06-11-2025 |
MATURITY DATE | 05-02-2026 | 07-05-2026 | 05-11-2026 |
TENOR | 91-DAY | 182-DAY | 364-DAY |
OFFER (₦) | 100,000,000,000 | 100,000,000,000 | 450,000,000,000 |
SUBSCRIPTION (₦) | 31,281,714,000 | 10,286,109,000 | 1,135,302,814,000 |
ALLOTMENT (₦) | 31,181,712,000 | 10,186,107,000 | 504,869,336,000 |
RANGE OF BIDS (%) | 14.6300 – 15.6500 | 15.0000 – 15.7000 | 15.0000 – 19.7500 |
STOP RATES (%) | 15.3000 | 15.5000 | 16.0400 |
PREVIOUS STOP RATES (%) | 15.3000 | 15.5000 | 16.1400 |
The DMO recently launched a dual-tranche Eurobond offering $700m for a 10-year note at 8.75% and $1.5 billion for a 20-year note at 9.25% (tentatively maturing January 2036 and 2046 respectively). Both witnessed exceptionally sharp investor demand attracting oversubscriptions exceeding 5–6 times the offered size, excluding joint lead manager interest. The strong response supports a robust international appetite for Nigerian sovereign debt, reflecting investors’ confidence in the country’s credit profile and a willingness to lock in relatively high yields amidst the heightened market uncertainty linked to political developments in the US, including President Donald Trump’s implied threats of military action on Nigeria.
The secondary market sustained a bullish tone, with yields holding within the high-15% to mid-16% band as renewed supply in short- to mid-tenor papers, particularly across the 2027–2034 bond maturities, were absorbed by firm demand, creating a competitive bid-ask environment. In the money market, positioning remained constructive, with investors rotating both into short- and long-dated OMO bills (23-Dec, 30-Dec, 18-Nov, 25-Nov, 7-Apr, 23-Jun, 20-Jan) and NTBs (5-Feb, 19-Feb, 22-Jan, 8-Oct, 22-Oct, 5-Nov), signalling a measured appetite for duration amid evolving liquidity conditions. Overall, quotes were largely balanced, though modestly wider offers emerged as participants tested market depth following the NTB and OMO auctions.
The Naira traded largely stable at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM), appreciating slightly from $/₦1,436.34 to $/₦1,436.57, with a week-to-date decline of about ₦0.24 (0.02%). The narrow trading range indicates improved FX liquidity and steady reserve growth, supported by the CBN’s proactive interventions.
Nigeria’s external reserves continued their upward momentum, rising from $43.19 billion on October 31 to $43.32 billion on November 6, marking a cumulative gain of approximately $127 million month-to-date (+0.28%), increased by liquid reserves. At the same time, blocked funds declined from $615.47 million to $600.36 million, reducing the blocked reserve ratio from 1.42% to 1.39%, indicating enhanced FX liquidity, reserve management efficiency, and progress in clearing outstanding obligations.
The recent rising U.S. Treasury yields around 4.10% signal that investors are adjusting to a “higher-for-longer” interest-rate outlook, resilient U.S. growth and fading expectations of near-term Fed rate cuts. Across the international financial markets, this trend translates into tighter funding conditions, a stronger dollar, and potential outflows from riskier emerging-market assets. Higher yields also lift the risk-free rate, reducing equity valuations, particularly in growth sectors, while boosting demand for fixed-income instruments. This movement amplifies a shift toward capital preservation and income-focused strategies as investors reassess risk premiums across asset classes
The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) All-Share Index declined throughout the week, with a week-to-date decline of 2.78% and 4,170.00 points to 149,569.00, during the week ended November 7th, 2025. The bearish run was driven by profit-taking in banking, industrial, telecommunication, and energy stocks. Conversely, Nigeria Exchange Group (NGX) declared interim dividends of ₦1.00 per 50 kobo ordinary share for Q3, 2025.
With ongoing supply concerns, OPEC+ decisions, and geopolitical developments, crude oil prices fluctuated. Brent futures opened the week at $64.53/barrel on Monday, November 3rd, with WTI at $60.71/barrel, as traders digested OPEC+’s pause on output increases despite expectations of 2026 oversupply and a Ukrainian drone strike on Russian facilities. By November 4th, Brent slipped to $64.55 and WTI to $60.74, following modest December production hikes and a pause in further increases, while sanctions on Russian oil maintained market caution. On November 5th, Brent edged slightly higher to $64.09 and WTI to $60.08, supported by tightening Russian exports, though U.S. crude inventories surged by 6.5 million barrels. By Thursday, Brent fell to $63.14 and WTI to $59.19, pressured by Saudi price cuts for Asian buyers and rising output from OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers. By Friday, November 7th, Brent closed at $63.54 and WTI at $59.84, buoyed by a softer dollar and ongoing supply risks from sanctions and Ukrainian attacks, although global oversupply concerns and weak demand kept both benchmarks on track for a second consecutive weekly loss. Overall, the week highlighted persistent geopolitical and supply-driven volatility in the oil market.
Gold prices fluctuated within a tight range during the week, averaging near $4,000 per ounce as investors weighed shifting U.S. monetary policy signals and global sentiment. On Monday, November 3rd, gold stabilized at $4,015/oz, holding below October’s record high of $4,382/oz, as the dollar strengthened ahead of key payroll data. By Tuesday, prices slipped to $3,970/oz after several U.S Federal Reserve officials cast doubt on further rate cuts, while on Wednesday, price steadied around $3,975/oz despite stronger-than-expected automatic data processing (ADP) job growth (+42,000). By Thursday, prices rebounded to $3,993/oz as the dollar softened, alongside the prolonged U.S. government shutdown clouded the outlook. By Friday, November 7th, gold closed at $4,000/oz, supported by weaker U.S. labour data and renewed bets on a December rate cut (≈69% probability). Throughout the week, easing U.S.–China trade tensions and China’s withdrawal of a long-standing gold tax incentive tempered safe-haven demand, leaving gold with a muted weekly finish despite persistent macroeconomic uncertainty.
With anticipated inflows from OMO maturities and coupon payments exceeding ₦1.3 trillion in an already surplus liquidity system, capital is likely to flow into other asset classes, including equities, while potentially prompting the CBN to intervene with OMO auctions to manage excess liquidity and stabilize FX pressures. Looking ahead, the October inflation report will be crucial, providing critical guidance for the final monetary policy meeting (MPC) meeting of 2025, shaping policy decisions in the face of both domestic inflationary trends and persistent global pressures.
By: Sandra A. Aghaizu
President Tinubu’s call for ₦1.15 trillion more is a drumbeat before the storm…
an early rhythm in the dance of debt and duty.
Before the Eurobond sails are raised, before the market’s chorus begins,
the nation steadies its feet upon familiar soil,
borrowing from within to keep its dreams afloat.
Yet in the hush between numbers and need,
the air thickens with the scent of rising yields…
a reminder that every borrowed breath
carries the echo of tomorrow’s price.
