The first week of March 2026 saw the impact of geopolitical tension on financial markets globally, pushing commodities to an all-time high in the first quarter of 2026. Nigeria’s markets were shaped by liquidity and geopolitical developments, while the combined Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and Debt Management Office (DMO) selective allotment reinforced scarcity premiums and management cost control, despite high demand at the Open Market Operations (OMO) and Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTB) auctions. The Nigerian Exchange All-Share Index (NGX ASI) gained weekly by 2.17% on strong sector performance, while the Naira declined by 2.19% week-on-week amid rising reserves. These developments occurred alongside the maturity of Nigeria Treasury Bills (NTBs) and Open Market Operations (OMO) totalling ₦799.12 billion and ₦951.20 billion, respectively. Globally, equities struggled on geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic data while commodities extended gains. Oil closed at over 10% increase with Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at $91.23/bbl., and $88.82/bbl., while gold closed lower at $5,145.15/oz. Markets balanced cautious optimism with risk aversion, highlighted by policy expectations and structural liquidity trends.
Interbank liquidity opened the week at ₦3.39trn surplus before increasing to a peak of ₦5.89trn by Friday, marking a week-to-date increase of 34.2%. Money market rates were largely stable; the Open Repo Rate (OPR) opened at 22.00%, where it steadied and closed, while the Overnight rate (O/N) opened at 22.35%, easing at 22.17% and closed at22.21%.In the currency market, the Naira traded between$/₦1,368.50 and $/₦1,405.00,closing at $/₦1,393.26 on Friday.
The secondary market exhibited a distinctly bearish tone as early buying momentum evaporated, giving way to persistent sell pressure that forced bond prices lower across the curve. This downward price action triggered a notable reversal in yields; while they initially dipped to a low of 16.15% and briefly retested the upper-15.00% level, most pronounced in the 2030–2035 maturities, the subsequent sell-off effectively ended this compression. In the money market, following the NTB and OMO auctions, sentiment remained bearish as investors offloaded long-dated bills, pushing OMO instruments into the 18%–19% band and NTB yields toward the mid-15% to upper-16% range. With persistent sell-side pressure across the curve with higher bids interest close to 16.50%, particularly at the 31s, 32s, 34s, and 35s, indicates a repricing and shift in investor’s appetite to higher return for these securities.
The March 5, 2026 Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTB) auction reflected strong investor demand with a clear preference for longer duration, as the 364-day instrument attracted overwhelming demand, receiving 2.5x its offer, highlighting persistent liquidity in the system and investors’ inclination to lock in attractive returns. Across the board, the Bid-to-Cover ratio (BCR) was 1.26x, 1.49x, and 2.48x, respectively. The cleared rate inched up on the 91- (+15bps) and 364-day (+83bps) bills, while the 182-day remained was unchanged, indicating that, despite strong demand, investors still demanded a higher yield premium for risk. Remarkably, the outcome showed the yield curve retracing to a normal upward slope from the humped curve that was seen at the previous auction. Meanwhile, the overall demand relative to supply compared to the previous auction showed a significant decline of 45.2% and 46.9%. Overall, the auction outcome signals a market balancing abundant liquidity with cautious stop rate, where investors continue to pursue duration opportunities but remain sensitive to macroeconomic uncertainty, positioning the NTB curve for potential secondary market yield compression if liquidity conditions persist.
AUCTION DATE | 04-03-2026 | 04-03-2026 | 04-03-2026 |
MATURITY DATE | 04-06-2026 | 03-09-2026 | 04-03-2027 |
TENOR | 91-DAY | 182-DAY | 364-DAY |
OFFER (₦) | 100,000,000,000 | 150,000,000,000 | 800,000,000,000 |
SUBSCRIPTION (₦) | 80,923,856,000 | 136,539,824,000 | 2,126,819,307,000 |
ALLOTMENT (₦) | 64,269,854,000 | 91,434,523,000 | 856,034,512,000 |
BID RANGE (%) | 14.8000 – 18.0000 | 15.0000 – 18.8000 | 15.0000 – 22.0000 |
STOP RATES (%) | 15.9500 | 16.6500 | 16.7300 |
PREVIOUS STOP RATES (%) | 15.8000 | 16.6500 | 15.9000 |
The OMO auctions conducted by the CBN on March 2 and 3, signalled a firm liquidity management stance through both pricing and selective allotment. While a combined ₦1.20trillion was offered across three tenors, total bids reached ₦1.69trillion, reflecting strong investor appetite despite an inter-day decline in demand, with the 106-day bill attracting 77.6%of total bids (nearly 6.56x subscription). However, in both auctions, the Central Bank allotted a total ₦405.6 billion, with zero sales on the 8-day paper despite a ₦106.0 billion bid, highlighting deliberate supply restraint. Stop rates cleared higher at 19.35% (99-day) and 19.40% (106-day), compared to previous 104- and 167-day bill rate of 18.45% and 18.77%, respectively, showing an upward repricing of 90bps and 63bps. This suggests the CBN is willing to sterilize liquidity amid surplus system, but the modest allotment size reinforces its preference to avoid excessive liquidity absorption at elevated costs. Overall, the auction reflects a calibrated balance: control via pricing, and cautious sale, keeping yields elevated while preventing an aggressive drain on market liquidity.
AUCTION DATE | TENOR | OFFER (₦‘B) | BIDS (₦‘B) | TOTAL SALE (₦‘B) | STOP RATES (%) | PREVIOUS TENOR STOP RATES (%) |
02-03-2026 | 8-DAY | 200.00 | 50.00 | 0.00 | 0.0000 | 21.9400 |
99-DAY | 200.00 | 169.00 | 24.00 | 19.3500 | 18.4500 | |
106-DAY | 200.00 | 760.50 | 232.00 | 19.4000 | 18.7700 | |
| 7-DAY | 200.00 | 56.00 | 0.00 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 |
98-DAY | 200.00 | 104.25 | 62.00 | 19.3500 | 19.3500 | |
105-DAY | 200.00 | 551.60 | 173.60 | 19.4000 | 19.4000 |
The Naira devalued in the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM), from ₦1,378.02 to ₦1,393.26, with a decline of ₦15.24 (-1.11%) and ₦29.86 (-2.19%) week-on-week, closing at ₦1,393.26 (down from ₦1,363.40 the previous week). Intra-week movements reflected a resilient market despite FX pressures, supported by improved liquidity and steady growth in external reserves.
Foreign reserves continued its upward momentum, rising from $49.85 billion on March2, to $49.93 billion by March 5, 2026, with a month-to-date gross gain of approximately $81.92million (+0.16%). Blocked funds increased from $710.47 million to $720.54 million (+1.42%), with an improved blocked reserve ratio of 1.44%, displaying improved FX liquidity, enhanced reserve management efficiency, and maintained progress in clearing outstanding obligations.
The Nigerian financial ecosystem is undergoing a profound structural transformation, defined by a synchronized strengthening of systemic liquidity, reserve quality, and institutional solvency. The banking sector in particular has achieved a critical milestone in its transition toward a $1 trillion economy, with the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) confirming that 30 lenders have successfully met revised minimum capital requirements, injecting over ₦4.05 trillion into the system primarily through domestic rights issues and private placements. This liquidity injection is complemented by a strategic evolution in reserve management, where the CBN has integrated $3.5 billion in locally refined, London Bullion Market Association (LBMA)-standard gold into its foreign reserves via the National Gold Purchase Programme, a move that helped preserve external reserves and FX liquidity. Simultaneously, the institutional investment landscape remains robust, with pension assets under management (AUM) climbing to ₦28.04 trillion in January 2026; however, fund managers maintained a defensive posture, keeping 59.55% of the portfolio in FGN securities and increased exposure to Treasury bills, in addition to long-term corporate infrastructure bonds to hedge against macroeconomic volatility. This union of banked capital, diversified reserves, and long-term pension liquidity positions its financial sector to better withstand global inflationary pressures and economic resilience.
The Federal Government’s decision to split the OPL 245 oil block into four new assets for Eni and Shell signals a strategic move toward commercial resolution and production over continued litigation. By restructuring this long-disputed field, previously untapped for nearly 30 years due to massive corruption trials, the government aims to finally unlock one of Nigeria’s most significant deepwater reserves. This move signals a pragmatic approach to boosting national oil output and attracting investment by clearing the regulatory and legal hurdles that have historically stalled development in the sector.
In the week ended March 6, 2026, the equities market was marked by a wave of FY-2025 profit releases, closing mildly positive as bargain hunting in select large-cap and banking stocks helped sustain the market’s bullish structure despite intermittent profit-taking. The NGX All-Share Index (ASI) traded with positive sentiment, opening at 195,514.21 on Monday, rising to 196,621.94 on Tuesday, easing to 196,463.22 on Wednesday, rebounding to 196,807.15 on Thursday, before settling at 196,992.44 on Friday. Market activity remained moderate as investors rotated into value stocks while trimming positions in recently rallied counters such as Aradel, Oando and MTNN. Sector performance was broadly firm across oil & gas, banking, and industrial, though market breadth strengthened as gainers outpaced decliners. Overall, the ASI recorded a 0.76% week-to-date gain (+1,478.23 points) and a 2.17% week-on-week rise (+4,174.72 points), lifting the year-to-date return to 26.59%.
The first week of March 2026 concluded with a dramatic “geopolitical dissociation,” as a full-scale U.S.-Israeli naval conflict with Iran pushed global energy markets into a frenzy, overshadowing regional economic data. While the S&P 500 showed relative resilience earlier in the week due to AI-driven earnings, a late-week spike in Brent crude to $91.23/bbl., triggered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, sent the Dow plunging over 1,200 points in a single session. The UK entered the spotlight with a low-key Spring Statement on March 3rd, where the Chancellor prioritized fiscal stability but faced a growth downgrade from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) to 1.1% for the year. The FTSE 100 suffered significantly, falling nearly 3% in mid-week trading as airline stocks like International Airlines Group (IAG) slumped and UK retail footfall was reported down 4.7% due to record February rainfall. European markets broadly bore the brunt of the risk-off sentiment, with the STOXX 600 heading for its worst weekly performance in a year (down 4.6%) as a 34-month high in Eurozone inflation of 1.90% in February 2026 effectively stalled European Central Bank’s (ECB) rate cut hopes. Meanwhile, China’s National People’s Congress set a decade-low growth target of 4.5% to 5.0%, signalling a shift toward structural reform over aggressive stimulus. Amid this chaos, Gold surged, while Bitcoin displayed remarkable institutional maturity, staging a 7.6% recovery to $73,245 as investors utilized the asset as a “digital gold” hedge against the week’s intensifying military and inflationary volatility.
Gold traded in a highly volatile pattern during the week as geopolitical escalation in the Middle East and shifting monetary policy expectations shaped investor positioning. The precious metal began the week strongly, surging to $5,289.00/oz. Monday, as markets rushed into safe-haven assets following the US–Israel strikes that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader and effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, threatening roughly 20% of global oil supply and pushing crude prices higher, thereby reviving global inflation fears. However, the rally quickly reversed as the US dollar strengthened and bond yields climbed, causing gold to drop to $5,131.14/oz. on Tuesday, with investors reassessing the Federal Reserve’s policy path amid expectations that rate cuts could be delayed to September. Midweek, bullion then recovered modestly to $5,158.11/oz. as markets continued to monitor the intensifying conflict and uncertainty surrounding Iran’s leadership transition. By Thursday, gold eased further to $5,100.80/oz., as a stronger dollar and reduced expectations of imminent easing offset safe-haven demand despite continued missile exchanges and strikes across the region. On Friday, it rebounded slightly to $5,145.15/oz., but remained on track for its first weekly decline in five weeks, as surging oil prices, rising Treasury yields, and resilient US economic data tempered the geopolitical risk premium, even as the conflict broadened with drone and missile attacks across the Gulf, heightening threats to regional energy infrastructure.
Crude oil prices rallied sharply during the week as escalating Middle East tensions disrupted global energy flows and heightened supply concerns around the Strait of Hormuz, which handles nearly 20% of global oil shipments. On March 2, WTI crude closed at $70.99/bbl., with Brent at $77.86/bbl., following US–Israel strikes on Iran and a drone attack that forced Saudi Aramco to halt operations at the Ras Tanura refinery. The rally strengthened on March 3, with WTI at $74.33/bbl. and Brent at $81.06/bbl., as shipping disruptions and rising war-risk insurance amplified supply concerns. Prices eased slightly on March 4 to $74.26/bbl. for WTI and $80.90/bbl. for Brent, after the US pledged to secure trade routes, though tanker traffic remained limited. The upward momentum resumed on March 5, pushing WTI to $79.43/bbl. and Brent to $84.69/bbl., supported by China’s halt of refined fuel exports and ongoing regional disruptions despite rising US inventories. By March 6, crude extended gains, with WTI at $88.82/bbl. and Brent at $91.23/bbl., placing both benchmarks on track for their largest weekly jump of over 25% and 17% respectively, since 2022 as supply disruptions, shipment rerouting, and geopolitical risk sustained strong market premiums.
Looking ahead, the scheduled March 11 NTB auction, with a total offer of ₦850 billion, in addition to a massive ₦1.81 trillion in maturing OMO and Treasury bills hitting the system next week, will test its resilience. Likely prompting the CBN to mop up surplus, as the excess liquidity will drive a fresh reinvestment pull or trigger new OMO auctions to control the money supply. However, the recent spike in oil prices remains a major risk for import-dependent economy, as rising energy costs could erode disinflationary gains and force Central Banks to maintain a tightening stance to curb “imported inflation.”
Date | FGN Bond Coupon | OMO Maturity | NTB Maturity |
Mar. 10 | – | ₦1.69trn | – |
Mar. 11 | – | – | – |
Mar. 12 | – | – | ₦744.16bn |
