The second week of March 2026 witnessed the continued impact of geopolitical tension on financial markets globally, pushing oil to an all-time high in the first quarter of 2026. Similarly, Nigeria’s markets were shaped by oil price volatility, liquidity, and policy developments, in addition to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and Debt Management Office (DMO) selective allotment, which signalled its desired threshold and management cost control, despite strong demand for long-day bills at the Open Market Operations (OMO) and Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTB) auctions. The Nigerian Exchange All-Share Index (NGX ASI) improved weekly by 0.60% on strong sector performance, while the Naira gained by 2.80% during the week, amidst rising reserves after it crossed the $50 billion mark. These developments occurred alongside the maturity of Nigeria Treasury (NTBs) and Open Market Operations (OMO) totalling ₦744.16 billion and ₦1.69 trillion, respectively. Globally, equities struggled following geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic data while commodities extended gains. Oil closed at over7% increase with Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at $102.86/bbl., and $95.11/bbl., while gold closed lower at $5,061/oz.
Interbank liquidity opened the week at a ₦5.37trn surplus, peaking at ₦7.07trn during the week and declined to ₦6.62trn by Friday, marking a week-to-date increase of 23.2%. Money market rates were relatively stable; the Open Repo Rate (OPR) opened at 22.00%, where it steadied and closed, while the Overnight rate (O/N) opened at 22.29%, peaking at 22.31% where it closed. In the currency market, the Naira traded between $/₦1,362.00 and $/₦1,425.00, closing at $/₦1,366.23 on Friday.
The secondary market was relatively stable throughout the week, with yields holding within the 16.00%-16.50% range, most pronounced in the 2027–2035 maturities. In the money market, following the NTB and OMO auctions, sentiment remained positive with demand for long-dated and recently issued bills. OMO instruments traded within the 17%–19% band, while NTBs toward the mid-15% to mid-16% range, indicating a shift in investors’ appetite and uncertainty of the next trend with regards to the effect of the global oil market volatility, thereby leading to what appeared to be trading in circles.
The March 9, 2026, OMO auction result signalled a firm management control stance through pricing and selective allotment. While a combined ₦600 billion was offered across three tenors (8-, 99-, and 113-day), total bids reached ₦767 billion, reflecting strong investor appetite yet a decline in demand from the previous sale. With the 113-day bill attracting 60.4% of total bids (2.32x subscription to offer), stop rates remained unchanged at 19.35% (99‑day) while the 113-day improved at 19.69% (+29bps) compared with the last 105-day. Despite system liquidity at over ₦5.3trn, yet only ₦81.00 billion (lower bid range) allotted against the total bid, the CBN restrained absorption at a convenient threshold for the 99- and 113-day bill with zero sale for 8-day, indicating firm control on yields despite higher bid range.
AUCTION DATE | TENOR | OFFER (₦’B) | BIDS (₦’B) | TOTAL SALE (₦’B) | STOP RATES (%) | PREVIOUS TENOR STOP RATES (%) |
09-03-2026 | 8-DAY | 200.00 | 156.00 | 0.00 | 0.0000 | 21.9400 |
99-DAY | 200.00 | 148.00 | 13.00 | 19.3500 | 19.3500 | |
113-DAY | 200.00 | 463.00 | 68.00 | 19.6900 | 19.4000 |
The March 11, 2026, Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTB) auction reflected strong investor demand, with a clear preference for longer duration. Despite the improved demand for short-day paper, while the 182-day declined, the 364-day instrument attracted higher demand, receiving 4.27x its offer, indicating persistent liquidity in the system and investors’ inclination toward attractive returns. Across the board, the Bid-to-Cover ratio (BCR) were 1.00x, 1.15x, and 3.51x, respectively. The cleared rate were steady for the 91- and 182-daybills, while the 1-year mildly declined to 16.72% (-1bps). Notably, the total demand rose by 18.6% while sales decreased by 7.69%, compared to the previous auction. Overall, the outcome signals that the DMO is leveraging favourable funding alternatives, likely buoyed by rising global oil prices.
AUCTION DATE | 11-03-2026 | 11-03-2026 | 11-03-2026 |
MATURITY DATE | 11-06-2026 | 10-09-2026 | 11-03-2027 |
TENOR | 91-DAY | 182-DAY | 364-DAY |
OFFER (₦) | 100,000,000,000 | 150,000,000,000 | 600,000,000,000 |
SUBSCRIPTION (₦) | 131,116,736,000 | 82,336,627,000 | 2,567,181,291,000 |
ALLOTMENT (₦) | 130,741,320,000 | 71,368,720,000 | 731,811,493,000 |
BID RANGE (%) | 15.0000 – 16.9500 | 15.0000 – 19.0000 | 15.5000 – 21.0000 |
STOP RATES (%) | 15.9500 | 16.6500 | 16.7200 |
PREVIOUS STOP RATES (%) | 15.9500 | 16.6500 | 15.7300 |
The Naira opened the week at a declined $/₦1,405.62, a level seen last 6 weeks before appreciating in the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) to ₦1,366.23, an intra-week gain of ₦39.19 (+2.80%) and ₦27.02 (+1.94%) week-on-week, closing at ₦1,366.23 (up from ₦1,393.26the previous week). Intra-week movements reflected a resilient market despite FX pressures and steady growth in external reserves.
Foreign reserves continued its upward momentum, rising from $49.63 billion on February 27, to $50.03 billion by March 11, 2026, with a month-to-date gross gain of approximately $333.88 million (+0.67%). Blocked funds increased from $697.95 million to $741.47 million (+6.23%), with an improved blocked reserve ratio of 1.48%, displaying improved FX liquidity, enhanced reserve management efficiency, and maintained progress in clearing outstanding obligations.
The global and Nigerian energy landscapes steer a period of intense volatility, characterized by historic supply disruptions and a strategic shift toward domestic self-sufficiency. Hostilities in the Middle East have triggered a massive 10 million barrels per day (mbpd) production cut, driving Brent crude prices above $100 and prompting a record 400-million-barrel emergency release from the International Energy Agency (IEA) reserves to stabilize the market. Domestically, Nigeria is grappling with a decline in crude production to 1.31 mbpd, missing its OPEC quota as operational challenges persist. However, a major shift in the downstream sector is evident as the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) have suspended petrol import licenses for a second month, favouring the Dangotes’ Refinery, which now supplies approximately 64% of local demand and is targeting an increased refining capacity of 700,000 bpd. While Nigeria maintained a trade surplus of ₦1.71 trillion in Q4 2025 despite declining export earnings, the broader economic environment remains cautious. In addition, the Central Bank of Nigeria has mandated that the stress tests for banks commence in April 2026, to ensure financial stability against potential shocks, such as fluctuating commodity prices and exchange rate movements.
In the week ended March 13, 2026, the equities market was marked by a sideways pattern, as bargain hunting in select large-cap stocks including ZenithBank, Aradel, ETI, Wapco, helped sustain the market’s structure despite continued profit-taking. The NGX ASI opened at 197,219.19 points on Monday, declining to 196,066.23 on Tuesday, easing to 195,888.79 on Wednesday, rebounding to 196,910.40 on Thursday, before settling at 198,407.30 on Friday, highlighting a recovery in market sentiment despite the broader risk-off tone in global markets. Overall, the ASI recorded a 0.60% week-to-date gain (+1188.11 points) and a 0.72% week-on-week rise (+1414.86 points), lifting the year-to-date return to 27.50%.
The global financial markets were dominated by a sharp geopolitical shock following the escalation of the U.S.–Israel conflict with Iran, which disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a route responsible for roughly 20% of global oil and gas trade, triggering a surge in energy prices and broad cross-asset volatility. Brent crude climbed above $100 per barrel, intensifying global inflation fears and driving a risk-off tone across financial markets. In equities, major benchmarks retreated as investors repriced energy-driven inflation risks: the S&P 500 fell sharply early in the week amid concerns that higher oil prices could slow growth, while European equities declined for a second consecutive week, with the STOXX 600 slipping to around 596 points as banking stocks led losses amidst rising geopolitical exposure. Asian markets also weakened as energy import concerns weighed on sentiment and investors sought liquidity in the U.S. dollar. China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose sharply to 1.30% year-on-year (YoY) in February, up from 0.20% in January, marking the highest level in 37 months. The increase was mainly driven by a rebound in food prices, which climbed to 1.70% YoY from -0.70% in the previous month. This rise was mostly supported by stronger seasonal demand for pork, seafood, and fresh fruits during the Lunar New Year celebrations, which lifted overall consumer spending and pushed inflation higher.
While the U.S.CPI report showed annual inflation holding at 2.4%, meeting expectations, it fuelled concerns that energy price spikes could derail the Federal Reserve’s disinflationary progress. In commodities, oil led gains while gold remained supported by safe-haven demand, and natural gas prices in Europe surged amid supply disruptions linked to attacks on regional energy infrastructure. Capital flows reflected heightened caution, with global equity funds recording about $7.05 billion in outflows, while money-market and short-duration bond funds attracted inflows as investors rotated into defensive assets and volatility increased, with the volatility index (VIX) climbing above 28, and policymakers’ attempts to stabilise markets through coordinated responses. Overall, the week reinforced a fragile macro-financial environment in which geopolitical escalation, energy-driven inflation risks, and uncertain monetary policy paths drove sharp movements across equities, commodities, bonds, and currencies.
Gold prices traded within the backdrop of oil price volatility during the week, as Bullion slipped to around $5,085/oz. on Monday as the firmer dollar and fading expectations of imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts offset geopolitical demand despite oil prices surging above $100/bbl amid disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Prices rebounded to about $5,231./oz. on Tuesday, as the dollar weakened and Treasury yields retreated, boosting demand for non-yielding assets amid rising stagflation concerns. By Wednesday, it stabilized near $5,169/oz. as investors assessed the US inflation data. The metal eased further to roughly $5,131/oz. on Thursday, pressured by a stronger dollar and rising bond yields, despite persistent geopolitical risks before closing at $5,061/oz. on Friday. Overall, gold remained supported by central-bank accumulation and geopolitical uncertainty, though elevated yields and delayed expectations for U.S. monetary easing limited further upside despite the intensifying energy-driven inflation shock.
The Oil markets experienced severe volatility during the week ended March 13, 2026, as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz triggered one of the sharpest supply shocks in recent decades. Prices initially surged on Monday, with WTI jumping above $100/bbl. and Brent rising past $100/bbl., briefly approaching $120/bbl. following Middle Eastern producers, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait, and Iraq, curbing output amid restricted tanker traffic and rapidly filled storage facilities, marking roughly a 35% weekly surge, the largest since futures trading began in 1983. Markets partially retraced on Tuesday, with WTI at $88.35/bbl. and Brent at $93.05/bbl., as traders weighed diplomatic signals against intensifying military strikes involving Iran and regional actors. By Wednesday, WTI and Brent closed at $87.52/bbl. and $91.97/bbl. after the International Energy Agency (IEA) approved a historic 400 million barrel strategic reserve release, while Japan also signaled potential reserve deployment; however, supply risks persisted as the conflict showed little sign of easing, and the Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) maintained its demand growth outlook for 2026–2027. On Thursday, the rally resumed with Brent at $99.15/bbl. and WTI reaching $93.83/bbl., after Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, signaled that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed, effectively threatening around 20% of global seaborne oil trade, prompting the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) production cuts estimated near 10 million barrels per day as exports stalled. By Friday, WTI and Brent closed at $95.11/bbl.and$102.86/bbl. respectively, as markets assessed the effectiveness of the strategic reserve release, U.S. efforts to organize tanker escorts through the strait, and temporary allowances for stranded Russian crude purchases.
The near term is filled with expectations of intervention measures globally to mitigate risk as the market awaits the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee Meeting during the week. In Nigeria, the expected February 2026 inflation report release, in addition to the scheduled March 18 NTB auction, with a total offer of ₦1.05 trillion, and₦1.09trillion inflows stemming from coupon payments, FGN 21.00% Mar. 2026 bond redemption, maturing (OMO and Treasury) bills into the system. A potentially prompt for the CBN to mop up surplus, as the excess liquidity will drive a fresh reinvestment pull or trigger new OMO auctions to control the money supply. Against a back-drop of volatile oil price spike, which remain a crucial risk for an import-dependent economy, as rising energy costs impact economic activity, likely reversing disinflationary gains, driving Central Banks to maintain a tightening stance to curb “inflation.”
Date | FGN Bond Coupon | OMO Maturity | NTB Maturity |
Mar. 17 | 16.29% Mar. 2027 ₦84.30bn | ₦785.75bn | – |
Mar. 18 | 12.40% Mar. 2036 ₦57.40bn | – | – |
Mar. 19 | – | – | ₦579.00bn |
Mar. 20 | 19.94% Mar. 2037 ₦124.82bn 21.00% Mar. 2028 ₦58.62bn 21.00% Mar. 2026 ₦73.50bn and 700bn Redemption |
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By: Sandra A. Aghaizu
Oil climbed like a restless tide,
pushing waves through distant shores.
Currencies shifted like wind in tall grass,
bending, then rising again.
Liquidity moved through the system
like rivers finding their path,
some waters held back,
some released with care.
The market, like a patient forest,
listened to storms in the distance,
yet still grew quietly,
one green leaf at a time.
