Domestic financial markets walked a tightrope in a mixed but structurally liquid environment during the review period of March 23-27, 2026, as shifting yields, selective demand, and global risk factors shaped investor positioning. While the fixed income space reflected a cautious, yield-driven allocation across Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) Open Market Operation (OMO) bills, Nigeria Treasury Bills (NTB), FGN bonds, amid evolving rate expectations and liquidity absorption, the Eurobond market repriced higher in response to external pressures before stabilizing. Concurrently, policy actions by the CBN aimed at strengthening FX transparency and remittance flows complemented a relatively resilient Naira and moderated reserve drawdowns. In equities, the NGX sustained a modest upward trend despite weakening breadth, pointing to narrowing participation. Overall, market activity was defined by selective risk-taking, duration optimization, and heightened sensitivity to both domestic policy signals and global energy-induced volatility. Globally, equities struggled on geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic data while commodities extended gains. Oil closed at over 5% with Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at $111.50/bbl., and $98.60/bbl., while gold wound up at $4,511.05/oz.
Interbank liquidity opened the week at ₦8.15trn surplus, peaking at ₦8.87trn on Thursday, and declined to ₦5.93trn by Friday, marking a week-to-date decrease of 27.3%. Money market rates were relatively stable, with the Open Repo Rate (OPR) open and steady at 22.00%, while the Overnight rate (O/N) opened at 22.27%, peaking at 22.37% before closing at 22.26%. In the currency market, Naira traded between $/₦1,375.00 and $/₦1,399.00, closing at $/₦1,380.58 on Friday.
The secondary market traded mixed through the week, despite increased demand for bills compared to bonds, with yields in the low 16.00% range for bonds, most pronounced in the 2027–2035 maturities. Although market sentiment remained bearish, with sustained selective demand across the curve, most notably the long-day bills following the recent issuance. OMO instruments traded within the upper-19% band. At the same time, NTBs maintained the low to mid-16% range, indicating a shift in investors’ appetite amidst its push for attractive yields, due to the global energy-induced price volatility, leading to cautious event trading activity.
Nigeria’s Eurobond curve between March 17–24, 2026, showed a broad upward repricing in yields followed by mild stabilization, reflecting adjustment to global macro pressures. Yields rose sharply between March 18 and 20, particularly across the mid- to long-tenors (2030–2051), with the far end (2046–2051) approaching the 8.60%+ range, indicating elevated duration risk premium. The belly of the curve (2029–2034) also steepened, with yields rising from the low 6% range to about 7.86%, signalling a clear risk-off tone. By March 23–24, yields eased slightly, suggesting selective buying interest, especially at the long end, while the short end (2027–2028) remained relatively stable. Overall, the curve remains steep with embedded term premium, highlighting a market repricing of sovereign risk in line with global conditions.
The CBN’s OMO auctions held on March 23 and 26, 2026, show a very liquid environment with selective duration and strong investor demand. The auctions featured short-and mid-tenors; however, keystone demand was overwhelmingly concentrated in the 96- and 113-day, which accounted for the bulk of total sales. Conversely, the 75-day paper saw weak demand, while the 8- and 33-day bills were well subscribed. Notably, stop rates showed a mixed but telling pattern, reinforcing a gradual easing bias: with the 8-day at 21.90% (-4bps), and 113-day at 19.79% (+10bps), while the second tranche with the 33-day at 21.57%, 75- and 96-day at 19.75% and 19.69% respectively. Across the board, bid-to-cover ratios were 1.75x, 1.21x, 3.75x, 1.91x, and 1.26x, further highlighting uneven but targeted demand across maturities. Overall, the auction emphasised a market that is flush with liquidity but increasingly selective, with investors rotating into preferred maturities to optimize returns while normalizing rate compression.
| AUCTION DATE | TENOR | OFFER (₦'B) | BIDS (₦'B) | TOTAL SALE (₦'B) | STOP RATES (%) | PREVIOUS TENOR STOP RATES (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23-03-2026 | 8-DAY | 300.00 | 533.00 | 303.00 | 21.9000 | 21.9400 |
| 113-DAY | 300.00 | 2,483.60 | 2,054.00 | 19.7900 | 19.6900 | |
| 26-03-2026 | 33-DAY | 200.00 | 844.50 | 225.50 | 21.5700 | 21.9000 |
| 75-DAY | 200.00 | 142.25 | 74.50 | 19.7500 | 19.3500 | |
| 96-DAY | 200.00 | 1,828.00 | 1,453.50 | 19.6900 | 19.7900 |
The fourth NTB auction result conducted on March 25, 2026, signalled a tilt towards rate compression and curve flattening, with the near 1-basis-point spread between the mid- and long-day bills, despite effective yield maintaining a duration premium at 16.61%, 17.88%, and 19.65%. Stop rates declined by 20bps for the 364- and 182-day at 16.43% and 16.42% respectively, while the short-day remained unchanged at 15.95%. Demand across the short- and mid-day witnessed lukewarm participation shown by the under-subscriptions in the 91- and 182-day tenors, while the 364-day paper attracted massive demand of 13.63x with an allotment of 14.5% its subscription. This strong concentration of liquidity at the long end suggests that investors are anticipating a downward repricing in the current yield cycle, which the CBN cleared at a more measured borrowing cost level. Bid-to-cover also mirrored a unique ascending trend at 1.01x, 2.37x, and 6.90x for the 91-, 182-, and 364-day, respectively.
AUCTION DATE | 25-03-2026 | 25-03-2026 | 25-03-2026 |
MATURITY DATE | 25-06-2026 | 24-09-2026 | 25-03-2027 |
TENOR | 91-DAY | 182-DAY | 364-DAY |
OFFER (₦) | 100,000,000,000 | 100,000,000,000 | 200,000,000,000 |
SUBSCRIPTION (₦) | 98,712,414,000 | 66,582,965,000 | 2,726,302,282,000 |
ALLOTMENT (₦) | 97,752,414,000 | 28,044,771,000 | 394,875,626,000 |
BID RANGE (%) | 15.3000 – 16.6000 | 16.0000 – 16.6800 | 15.9500 – 19.5000 |
STOP RATES (%) | 15.9500 | 16.4200 | 16.4300 |
PREVIOUS STOP RATES (%) | 15.9500 | 16.6200 | 16.6300 |
The first quarter of 2026 was characterized by continued liquidity absorption and rate compression at the NTB market, with total issuance of ₦8.22 trillion significantly outpacing maturities of ₦5.57 trillion. This resulted in a substantial net mop-up of ₦2.65 trillion; issuance peaked in February as the government maintained a firm but breathable grip on system liquidity. Stop rates averaged at 15.86%, 16.60%, 17.17%, while MoM was steady at 15.82% for the 91-day (peaking at 15.95% in March), 182-day oscillated within mid-16%, and the 364-day declined from 18.42% to 16.65%. The market demand remained heavily skewed toward the 364-day tenor, which accounted for over 85% of all issues, signalling a strong preference for locking in longer-term domestic debt despite a notable surge in maturity volume during March 2026.
The CBN has mandated all International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOs) to open and maintain Naira settlement accounts with authorised dealer banks, with all remittance inflows, disbursements, and FX conversions routed exclusively through these accounts, effective May 1, 2026. The policy strengthens oversight, transparency, and traceability of diaspora remittances, restricts funding of these accounts strictly to legitimate FX inflows, and enforces full regulatory reporting in addition to Anti-Money Laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) compliance. Additionally, IMTOs must adopt Bloomberg BMatch as a pricing benchmark to enhance price discovery and reduce market distortions. Overall, the directive signals a strategic push to formalise remittance flows, improve liquidity in the official FX market, and narrow the gap between official and parallel rates. However, potential frictions may arise in the form of higher transaction costs, operational bottlenecks, and reduced flexibility for IMTOs, which could incentivize some users to remain in informal channels if efficiency and pricing competitiveness are not maintained.
The Naira rebounded with a gain of 0.56% to ₦7.81 week to date, trading within the band of $/₦1,388.38 and $/₦1,380.58 in the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM), and a loss of ₦26.67 (-1.97%) week-on-week, closing at ₦1,380.58 (from ₦1,353.90 the previous week). Intra-week movements reflected a resilient market despite relative FX pressures and external reserves decline.
Nigeria’s foreign reserves declined during the third and fourth weeks of March, easing from $49.79 billion to $49.48 billion by March 26, 2026, with a week-to-date gross amount of approximately $305.77 million (-0.61%). Blocked funds decreased from $765.91 million to $751.41 million (-1.89%), with an increased blocked reserve ratio of 1.52%, displaying improved FX liquidity pressure, enhanced reserve management efficiency, and maintained progress in clearing outstanding obligations.
The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) has lifted the trading suspension on Zichis Agro-Allied Industries Plc, effective March 23, following the conclusion of a regulatory investigation triggered by an abnormal 772% surge in its share price, from ₦1.81 at listing on January 20 to ₦17.36. NGX Regulation Limited confirmed that the review of trading activities has been completed and corrective measures implemented to preserve market integrity, while allowing trading to resume. Meanwhile, the NGX ASI recorded a steady upward trajectory during the week of March 23–27, 2026, rising from 199,014.02 on Monday to 200,705.88 on Tuesday, and further to 200,925.75 on Wednesday, before marginally advancing to 200,957.89 on Thursday, closing Friday at 200,913.06. The ASI posted a 0.95% week-to-date gain (1,889.04 points) alongside a 0.12% week-on-week decline (-243.77 points), mildly trimming the year-to-date return to 29.11%. The performance reflected a sustained early-week buying interest, with gains moderated toward midweek as momentum softened. Market breadth weakened progressively, from 2.17x on Monday to 1.69x on Tuesday, 1.15x on Wednesday, and 0.83x on Thursday, and upticked to 1.06x by Friday, signalling a narrowing participation as advancers tapered relative to decliners. Top gainers include Presco, AirtelAfri, Oando, and Trancorp, while Cadbury, ZenithBank, MTNN, FirstHoldCo not so much. Overall, the market maintained a positive close-to-date performance, albeit with fading internal strength and increasing selectivity among investors.
The global financial markets navigated a volatile week ending March 27, 2026, as intensifying geopolitical conflict in the Middle East fuelled a sharp “risk-off” sentiment and stoked stagflationary concerns. In the UK, February Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation held steady at 3.0%, though consumer confidence dipped to -21 amid fears that Brent crude, which surged toward $108 per barrel before a late-week reprieve from President Trump 10 day pause on Iran’s energy plant attack, will drive prices higher. Equity markets were largely defensive: the FTSE 100 retreated to close near 9,940, while U.S. markets faced their worst session of the year on Thursday, with the Nasdaq sinking 2.4% into correction territory, and the S&P 500 and Dow Jones falling 1.7% and 1% respectively. Asian indices suffered even deeper losses, as the Nikkei 225 shed 1.2% to finish at 52,982.86 and South Korea’s KOSPI slumped 3.1% to 5,293.26, weighed down by a global semiconductor downturn. Macroeconomically, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark rate at 3.50%–3.75%, but a “higher-for-longer” narrative now dominates as policymakers balance a slowing labour market, highlighted by a loss of 92,000 U.S. jobs in February, against the inflationary pressures of a significant energy supply shock
Gold prices reflected sharp, policy-driven volatility as geopolitics and shifting rate expectations dominated sentiment. On Monday, gold traded above $4,480/oz. but settled lower at $4,452.76/oz after an initial plunge tied to surging oil prices and rising yields, before recovering following signs of US–Iran de-escalation. By Tuesday, prices hovered near $4,400/oz, remaining under pressure as inflation concerns and fading expectations of rate cuts weighed on the metal despite ongoing conflict uncertainty. Momentum turned positive on Wednesday, with gold rising above $4,500/oz to $4,557.59/oz, supported by renewed diplomatic efforts and ceasefire prospects. Yet, on Thursday, prices fell back to $4,461.88/oz, as escalating tensions lifted oil, strengthened the dollar, and reinforced expectations of prolonged tight monetary policy. By Friday, bullion rebounded modestly to $4,511.05/oz., supported by a delay in US military action and partial easing in market stress, though the broader tone remained constrained by elevated yields and persistent inflation risks.
Crude oil markets were defined by sharp volatility driven by shifting geopolitical signals around the US–Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz. On Monday, prices plunged over 10%, with WTI falling to about $87/bbl. (from $98.23) and Brent to $98/bbl. (from $112.19), after the US announced a temporary pause in planned strikes, easing immediate supply concerns despite conflicting narratives from Iran. By Tuesday, prices rebounded amid renewed tensions, with WTI rising to ~$92.13/bbl. and Brent to $102.94/bbl., as Gulf states signalled a harder stance. The recovery proved short-lived on Wednesday, as WTI dropped over 6% to $86.8/bbl. and Brent to ~$98/bbl., pressured by advancing US diplomatic efforts despite ongoing military escalation and partial Strait restrictions. Momentum reversed again on Thursday, with Brent climbing above $107.95/bbl. and WTI to $94.50/bbl., following revived US warnings to Iran and heightened supply risk signals, including potential transit fees in Hormuz. By Friday, prices extended gains, with WTI at $98.60/bbl. and Brent near $111.50/bbl., supported by doubts over near-term resolution, increased military mobilization, and limited tanker movements through the Strait, leaving crude prices significantly elevated overall as supply risk remains the dominant market driver.
In the near term, market direction is expected to remain cautiously mixed with a tightening bias, supported by expectations of policy intervention globally to mitigate rising risks. In Nigeria, attention will center on the upcoming FGN Bond auction featuring reopened papers (17.945% Aug 2030, 17.95% Jun 2032, and 19.89% May 2033) with a total offer of ₦750bn. Here, stop rates will be pivotal in shaping short-term yield direction despite prevailing expectations of downward compression. Liquidity conditions remain robust, with elevated balances in the Standing Deposit Window likely to drive stronger demand at the mid- to long-end of the curve. Although the week is devoid of inflows, the broader month remains liquidity-heavy with inflows of over ₦7.50 trillion, comprising ₦498.79bn in FGN bond coupons, ₦5.93trn in OMO maturities, and ₦1.11trn in NTB maturities. Consequently, fixed income markets are likely to see continued selective demand and gradual yield moderation, while equities maintain a modest upward bias amid narrowing breadth. Overall, markets will remain event-driven, with investor positioning guided by auction outcomes, liquidity dynamics, and evolving global macro conditions.
By: Sandra A. Aghaizu
The markets drift on restless seas,
Where whispers turn to warnings in the breeze.
Oil burns brighter than the guiding stars,
While distant conflicts echo from afar.
The sailors pause, their compass held with care,
Unsure if calm or storm awaits them there.
The helm stays firm, yet progress feels restrained,
As hope and caution move like intertwined chains.
Still through the dark, the vessel finds its way,
Not lost, just learning how to ride the sway.
