Nigeria’s financial markets entered April 2026 under a mix of caution and selective opportunity. The secondary market favoured NTBs over FGN bonds, with longer-day bills supporting yields in the low- to mid-16% range, while OMO bills traded near upper-19% levels amid disciplined Central Bank allocation. Eurobond yields rose across short, mid, and long tenors (+5–35bps) despite global oil price volatility and risk pressures, reflecting investor caution but selective duration demand. The March FGN bond auction confirmed skewed appetite toward longer tenors, with ₦462bn subscribed for the 9-year bond, while shorter tenors saw moderate take-up. Equities showed resilient but moderated gains, as the NGX ASI rose from 200,484.43 to 201,703.55 before a slight decline, while the Naira strengthened marginally amid FX pressures. Global energy shocks and geopolitical tensions drove heightened volatility across crude, gold, and international equities, reinforcing a “risk-on selective” trading environment, with investors navigating liquidity, duration, and yield opportunities amidst externally driven market dynamics. Oil closed mixed with Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at $108.60/bbl. (-2.41%), and $110.21/bbl. (+11.81%), while gold wound up at $4,620.71/oz (+2.42%).
Interbank liquidity opened the week at ₦7.27trn surplus, easing to a close at ₦5.41trn on Thursday due to Easter break, marking a week-to-date decrease of 25.7%. Money market rates were relatively stable, with the Open Repo Rate (OPR) steady at 22.00%, while the Overnight rate (O/N) opened at 22.25%, closing at a peak of 22.31%. In the currency market, Naira traded between $/₦1,372.00 and $/₦1,391.00, before taking a bow at $/₦1,380.79 on Thursday.
The secondary market saw a cautious, event-driven shift amidst heightened global energy volatility. The overall sentiment leaned bearish, while liquidity preference drove NTBs to outperform bonds, with demand focused on longer-day bills, keeping yields in the low- to mid-16% range. FGN bonds across 2027–2035 maturities experienced selective activity, sustaining mid- to low-16% yields, alongside renewed interest in the 2050s and 2053s, while OMO bills continued to trade near the upper-19% band.
Between March 24 and April 1, 2026, Nigeria’s Eurobond yields increased across all maturities before easing slightly. Short-term bonds rose by about 15–35bps, mid-term by 20–35bps, and long-term by 5–25bps, showing that investors demanded higher returns due to global risks and oil price uncertainty. The pullback afterward was suggestive of some returned confidence with selective buying. Overall, the market was stable, with stronger pressure on medium and long-term bonds, largely driven by global factors.
The March FGN bond auction result reflects robust but duration-skewed demand with disciplined issuer pricing. Total subscriptions (~₦931bn) exceeded the ₦750bn offer, driven largely by the 9-year bond (₦462bn), which also received the bulk of allotment above its offer, confirming investor preference for long-end attractive yields. The 5- and 7-year bonds saw relatively lower allotments, despite adequate demand. Stop rates cleared at 16.00%, 16.15%, and 16.64%, indicating yield repricing easing with a slight upward bias with regard to the secondary market rate, although still below its issue rate.
FGN Bond | 17.945% AUG. 2030 | 17.95% JUN. 2032 | 19.89% MAY 2033 |
Maturity Date | 27-08-2030 | 25-06-2032 | 15-05-2033 |
Tenors | 5 | 7 | 9 |
Amount Offered (₦’B) | 250.00 | 200.00 | 300.00 |
Subscription (₦’B) | 251.43 | 217.87 | 462.21 |
Amount Allotted (₦’B) | 88.80 | 63.99 | 332.71 |
Stop Rates (%) | 16.0000 | 16.1500 | 16.6400 |
Last Auction Stop Rates (%) | 17.2000 | 15.7400 | 15.7400 |
The three OMO auctions held between March 30–April 2, 2026, outcomes are evidence of increased liquidity, with selective investors. Demand was strong for the short and long-day bills, but weak in the middle, showing a clear gap in interest. Interest rates stayed stable around 19.9%, reflecting consistent policy. The Central Bank carefully controlled what it accepted, focusing on long-day bills to absorb liquidity without pushing rates higher, balancing liquidity management, cost control, and market stability.
AUCTION DATE | TENOR | OFFER (₦‘B) | BIDS (₦‘B) | TOTAL SALE (₦‘B) | STOP RATES (%) | PREVIOUS TENOR STOP RATES (%) |
30-03-2026 | 8-DAY | 200.00 | 672.94 | 662.94 | 21.9000 | 21.9000 |
99-DAY | 200.00 | 91.15 | 85.15 | 19.8900 | 19.9400 | |
120-DAY | 200.00 | 1,182.50 | 992.50 | 19.9400 | 19.7900 | |
31-03-2026 | 70-DAY | 300.00 | 65.00 | 5.00 | 19.9000 | 19.7500 |
140-DAY | 300.00 | 1,232.05 | 848.75 | 19.9200 | 19.9400 | |
02-04-2026 | 75-DAY | 300.00 | 35.00 | 0.00 | 0.0000 | 19.7500 |
138-DAY | 300.00 | 1,444.50 | 1,369.50 | 19.9100 | 19.9200 |
The Naira gained 0.20% to ₦2.79 week to date, trading within the band of $/₦1,383.58 and $/₦1,380.79 in the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM), with a loss of ₦0.22 (-0.02%) week-on-week, closing almost steady at ₦1,380.79 (from ₦1,380.58 the previous week). Intra-week movements reflected a resilient market despite relative FX pressures and declining external reserves.
Nigeria’s foreign reserves declined further from the end of March 2026 to April 1, 2026, easing from $49.48 billion to $49.18 billion, with a gross amount of approximately $300.34 million (-0.61%). Blocked funds mirrored the easing from $751.41 million to $743.14 million (-1.11%), and a blocked reserve ratio of 1.51%, displaying heightened external shocks and FX liquidity pressure.
The successful conclusion of the CBN’s ₦4.65 trillion recapitalisation programme marks a structural shift for the Nigerian financial system, shifting the focus from emergency stability to long-term economic expansion. The transition is clearly echoed in GTCO’s 2025 performance; while a 14.94% dip in post-tax profit signals the cooling of volatile FX-driven gains, the group’s 20% surge in total assets and robust ₦1.7 trillion in retained earnings demonstrate a much healthier reliance on core interest income and “ecosystem” growth. Ultimately, the industry has traded the “sugar high” of previous years for a fortified capital base that aligns with the CBN’s stricter prudential oversight, positioning Tier-1 lenders to support credit-led growth despite lingering inflationary pressures.
Though Nigeria’s economy is still growing, it is not growing as fast as before. The CBN’s March 2026 composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data at 53.2 points shows that businesses are expanding across many sectors, but rising costs, especially for inputs, are putting pressure on profits. At the same time, regulators are tightening oversight, from supervising crypto activities to penalising stock market violations, which helps improve trust in the system. The financial sector is also evolving quickly, with companies like Flutterwave moving into full banking to increase revenue and compete more strongly. In addition to the government’s ₦68.3 trillion budget, focused on infrastructure, with the aim of supporting long-term growth. Overall, the economy is growing more slowly but becoming more structured, regulated, and competitive.
The NGX All-Share Index (ASI) maintained a positive but mild upward course during the period, rising from 200,484.43 on Monday to 201,287.78 on Tuesday, to 201,703.55 by Wednesday, before a marginal dip to 201,698.89 on Thursday, showing near-term consolidation after gains. Market breadth activity showed mixed but generally subdued momentum, with volume turnover at 0.97x, 0.40x, 0.66x, and 0.56x indicating cautious investor participation and selective positioning. Top gainers include MTNN, Nahcon, and Transcorp, while DangSugar, Wapco, UBA, and Custodian lead the decline. Overall, the ASI posted a gain of 0.61% week-to-date (1,214.46 points) and +0.39% week-on-week (785.83 points), with the year-to-date at +29.62%.
The global financial market entered April 2026 under extreme duress as a hawkish turn in geopolitical rhetoric shattered brief hopes for a Middle East ceasefire, sending crude oil soaring 6.9% to $108 per barrel. This energy shock triggered a violent “risk-off” liquidation across major equities, particularly in Asia, where Japan’s Nikkei 225 tumbled 2.4%, and South Korea’s KOSPI shed 4.47%, its sharpest decline since the height of the conflict, amid fears of a prolonged disruption to the Strait of Hormuz. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index surrendered its earlier gains to finish 1.3% lower, reflecting broader regional anxiety over soaring fuel costs and a strengthening US Dollar. Western markets mirrored this gloom; the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 fell over 1% as investors de-risked ahead of the Good Friday holiday, while the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan signaled a readiness to deploy pre-emptive rate hikes to anchor inflation expectations. Despite the bleeding in tech and consumer sectors, defense-related stocks and the commodity-heavy FTSE All-Share showed relative resilience, as the market turned toward “war-footing” assets in the face of a national debt crossing $39 trillion and an increasingly erratic global security outlook.
The global financial market entered April 2026 under extreme duress as a hawkish turn in geopolitical rhetoric shattered brief hopes for a Middle East ceasefire, sending crude oil soaring 6.9% to $108 per barrel. This energy shock triggered a violent “risk-off” liquidation across major equities, particularly in Asia, where Japan’s Nikkei 225 tumbled 2.4%, and South Korea’s KOSPI shed 4.47%, its sharpest decline since the height of the conflict, amid fears of a prolonged disruption to the Strait of Hormuz. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index surrendered its earlier gains to finish 1.3% lower, reflecting broader regional anxiety over soaring fuel costs and a strengthening US Dollar. Western markets mirrored this gloom; the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 fell over 1% as investors de-risked ahead of the Good Friday holiday, while the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan signaled a readiness to deploy pre-emptive rate hikes to anchor inflation expectations. Despite the bleeding in tech and consumer sectors, defense-related stocks and the commodity-heavy FTSE All-Share showed relative resilience, as the market turned toward “war-footing” assets in the face of a national debt crossing $39 trillion and an increasingly erratic global security outlook.
In the near term, the market is expected to stay cautiously tight, supported by possible global policy actions. Although, liquidity is still strong, with about ₦2.48trn inflows (₦356bn from NTBs, and ₦2.12trn from OMOs) in addition to the scheduled NTB auction with a total offer ₦700bn during the week, there is more supply ahead with the Q2 NTB calendar projection of ₦3.95trn issuance against ₦3.196trn maturities (about ₦800bn extra), including ₦1.45trn slated for April. Demand is expected to favour long-day bills as investors will likely prefer them for better yields, while short-day bills remain popular and mid-day bills see weaker need. Stop rates are likely to stay anchored near current levels as the Central Bank maintains disciplined pricing and allocation to guide the curve from undue upward pressure. Commodity price shocks remain key risks, while long-term bills continue to drive market activity
By: Sandra A. Aghaizu
April wakes uneasy,
as crude climbs like a warning flame.
The Strait of Hormuz whispers tension,
and markets listen, then retreat.
The S&P500 loosens its grip,
the Nikkei 225 bows its head.
Fear moves faster than reason,
capital seeks shelter in steel and smoke.
In the quiet sell-off,
uncertainty becomes the loudest currency.
