September 2026, Edition 1
According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 4.43% year-on-year (YoY) in Q2 2026, accelerating from 4.23% in Q2 2025 and 3.89% in Q1 2026. Aggregate nominal GDP reached ₦119.29 trillion, representing an 18.43% YoY increase from ₦100.73 trillion in Q2 2025. Growth during the quarter was supported by stronger performances across the non-oil economy, particularly Agriculture, Information & Communication, Construction and Services, alongside a recovery in crude oil production. Source: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria’s GDP Report, Q2 2026.
Key Macroeconomic Indicators
Metric | Q2 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 |
Real GDP Growth Rate (YoY) | 4.23% | 3.89% | 4.43% |
Nominal GDP | ₦100.73 Trillion | ₦110.79 Trillion | ₦119.29 Trillion |
Real GDP (2019 Constant Price) | ₦51.20 Trillion | ₦51.26 Trillion | ₦53.47 Trillion |
Average Oil Output | 1.68 mbpd | 1.55 mbpd | 1.72 mbpd |
Oil Sector Real Growth (YoY) | 20.46% | 2.57% | 7.31% |
Non-Oil Sector Real Growth (YoY) | 3.64% | 3.94% | 4.31% |
Broad Sector Breakdown (Real GDP)
The Oil Sector
- Production Output: Daily crude oil output averaged 1.72 million barrels per day (mbpd), up by 0.05 mbpd relative to Q2 2025 (1.68 mbpd) and 0.17 mbpd relative to Q1 2026 (1.55 mbpd).
- Sector Growth: Real growth stood at 7.31% (YoY), showing a recovery of 4.74% points compared to Q1 2026 (2.57%).
- Contribution: The sector represented 4.16% of total real GDP, expanding from 4.05% in Q2 2025.
The Non-Oil Sector
- Growth Performance: The non-oil economy grew by 4.31% (YoY) in real terms, outperforming the 3.64% recorded in Q2 2025 and 3.94% in Q1 2026.
- Drivers: Growth was largely sustained by Agriculture (Crop Production), Telecommunications & Information Services, Real Estate, Trade, Cement Manufacturing, and Construction.
- Contribution: Accounted for 95.84% of aggregate real GDP.
Core Sector Performance Highlights
- Services Sector: Remained the main structural driver of the economy, representing 56.62% of aggregate real GDP with a YoY growth rate of 4.60%.
- Agriculture: Expanded by 4.39% (YoY), a noticeable improvement from 2.82% in Q2 2025, contributing 26.15% to total real GDP. Crop Production was the main contributor, constituting 59.35% of the sector’s nominal value.
- Information and Communication: Recorded robust expansion, growing by 9.62% in real terms (YoY) and contributing 11.74% to total real GDP.
- Construction: Real output grew by 6.75% (YoY), contributing 3.68% to real GDP.
- Manufacturing: Grew modestly at 3.24% (YoY) in real terms, weighed down by contractions in activity sub-sectors such as Motor Vehicle Assembly (-1.02%) and Textiles (-1.23%), though buffered by Cement production (12.75%) and Oil Refining (43.94%).
- Electricity, Gas, Steam & Air Conditioning: Contracted significantly by -10.63% in real terms (YoY), though improving from -15.30% in Q1 2026.
Top 10 Contributing Economic Activities to Real GDP (Q2 2026)
- Trade: 17.93%
- Crop Production: 17.66%
- Real Estate: 12.71%
- Telecommunications & Information Services: 9.72%
- Livestock: 6.04%
- Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas: 4.16%
- Construction: 3.68%
- Financial Institutions: 2.94%
- Food, Beverage & Tobacco: 2.82%
- Public Administration: 2.66%
Takeaways
The Q2 2026 report indicates continuing broader economic resilience led by the non-oil sector, supported by momentum in agricultural production and non-oil services like telecommunications. Concurrently, the revival in daily crude oil output (reaching 1.72 mbpd) provided additional support to headline real GDP growth, alongside stronger non-oil activity. However, persistent drag in utilities (electricity supply) and select sub-manufacturing segments remains an area of structural focus. Addressing persistent electricity and industrial-sector constraints remains critical to converting the current recovery into stronger, more broad-based and sustainable economic growth.
