During the week, Nigeria’s financial markets traded with cautious resilience, strong system liquidity, selective duration demand, and persistent global signals. Fixed-income yields initially climbed toward 17.00% level before easing as demand improved across NTBs, FGN bonds, and Eurobonds.The OMO and NTB auctions were strongly oversubscribed, reflecting investors’ preference for attractive returns. The FX market remained relatively stable, with the Naira posting modest gains despite slight reserve moderation. Equities were mixed as profit-taking weighed on the NGX ASI, though positive market breadth signalled continued selective accumulation across key sectors. Globally, markets were pressured by hawkish central bank rhetoric signals, elevated U.S. Treasury yields, Middle East tensions, and volatile oil prices; while across Africa, macroeconomic divergence, fiscal reforms, and investor confidence measures continued to shape regional sentiment. Week-on-week, Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed at $101.00/bbl. (-11.55%), and $95.51/bbl. (-9.61%), while gold at $4,717.38/oz (+3.96%).
Interbank liquidity opened the week at ₦5.56trn surplus, peaked at ₦6.69trn mid-week, and closed at ₦5.67trn, up 1.89%WTD. Money market rates were broadly stable, with the Open Repo Rate (OPR) at 22.00%, and Overnight rate (O/N) opening at 22.24%, peaked at 22.25%, and closed at 22.19%. In the FX market, the Naira traded between $/₦1,350.00 and $/₦1,374.50, before closing at $/₦1,361.40 on Friday.
The secondary market traded mixed but mildly bullish. Yields briefly rose toward 17.00% on sell pressures before easing to around 16.85%–16.95% on select FGN bonds, as demand improved. T-bills yields moderated toward the 15.80%–16.10% range after the bullish NTB auction outcome, while selective buying interest supported lower yields across key 2027–2035 bond maturities. OMO bills stayed within the 19.70%–21.00% range, reflecting steady liquidity management and sustained preference for high-yield short-term instruments.
Nigeria’s Eurobond curve posted broad-based yield compression over the period (May 1-5, 2026), reinforcing a bullish tone. Short-end tenors saw marginal moves, with the 2027 and 2029 maturities easing by about -1.2bps and -0.8bps, while the belly of the curve outperformed, led by the 2031–2033 segment, where yields declined by roughly -10.0bps. Mid-to-long dated bonds also strengthened, with the 2030–2038 maturities easing by about -3.3bps to -9.9bps and select long-end papers (2046–2051) eased moderately. Overall, the curve reflects stronger demand in the belly and long end, with yield moderation concentrated in the 6–10bps range across key benchmarks, signalling sustained investor appetite for risk and duration.
The OMO auctions held on May 4 and 7, 2026, emphasize the CBN’s sustained liquidity sterilization stance, with demand concentrated at the short-to-mid segment of the curve where yields remain highly attractive above the 20% threshold. The first sale drew exceptional demand for the 8-day bill at 21.90%, while the 134-day tenor experienced a mild upward repricing to 19.97% (+6bps). Similarly, the second auction reflected strong demand for the 33-day and 96-day papers, respectively, against offers, clearing at 21.57% and 20.45%, while the 75-day tenor saw weak demand, with only ₦38bn subscribed. Overall, the trend indicated persistent system liquidity chasing high-yield risk-free instruments, though investors remained selective on tenor.
AUCTION DATE | TENOR | OFFER (₦‘B) | BIDS (₦‘B) | TOTAL SALE (₦‘B) | STOP RATES (%) | PREVIOUS TENOR STOP RATES (%) |
| 8-DAY | 300.00 | 1,065.00 | 1,065.00 | 21.9000 | 21.9000 |
134-DAY | 300.00 | 640.10 | 630.10 | 19.9700 | 19.9100 | |
| 33-DAY | 200.00 | 674.40 | 664.40 | 21.5700 | 00.0000 |
75-DAY | 200.00 | 38.00 | 38.00 | 20.6300 | 00.0000 | |
96-DAY | 200.00 | 923.17 | 893.17 | 20.4500 | 00.0000 |
The May 6, 2026 NTB auction maintained a bullish tone as stop rates eased marginally to 15.95%, 16.14%, and 16.15% for the 91-, 182-, and 364-day bills, respectively, with effective yields at 16.61%, 17.55%, and 19.25%. Investor appetite persisted, particularly at the long end, as shown by the bid-to-cover ratios of 1.12x, 1.56x, and 3.72x. Total subscriptions reached ₦2.41tn, but only ₦731.75bn was allotted, indicating selective issuance despite an 18.2% decline in allotment from the previous auction. Demand remained concentrated in the belly and long end. Overall, the auction reinforces a constructive duration bias, with anchored stop rates, supporting further secondary market yield compression.
AUCTION DATE | 06-05-2026 | 06-05-2026 | 06-05-2026 |
MATURITY DATE | 06-08-2026 | 05-11-2026 | 06-05-2027 |
TENOR | 91-DAY | 182-DAY | 364-DAY |
OFFER (₦) | 100,000,000,000 | 50,000,000,000 | 550,000,000,000 |
SUBSCRIPTION (₦) | 72,232,777,000 | 105,333,690,000 | 2,234,901,200,000 |
ALLOTMENT (₦) | 63,579,970,000 | 67,677,343,000 | 600,493,413,000 |
BID RANGE (%) | 15.3500 – 17.5000 | 15.4000 – 18.0000 | 15.5000 – 20.0000 |
STOP RATES (%) | 15.9490 | 16.1400 | 16.1500 |
PREVIOUS STOP RATES (%) | 15.9500 | 16.1900 | 16.1990 |
The Naira gained ₦3.85 (-0.28%) week-to-date (WTD), trading between $/₦1,365.25 and $/₦1,361.40 in the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM), marking a week-on-week increase of ₦13.55 (-0.99%), and closed at $/₦1,361.40 (WoW ₦1,374.94). Foreign reserves eased to $48.33bn (-0.08%) as of May7, 2026, with blocked funds falling to $723.78m (-0.78%), while the blocked reserve ratio improved at 1.50%. Overall, FX conditions remained relatively stable amidst liquidity and external pressures.
The Nigerian equities market traded on a mixed but resilient note during the review period, which featured dividend payments. The NGX (ASI) fluctuated from 243,158.97 points on May 4 to 244,775.83 points on May 8, as profit-taking followed recent gains. Market breadth remained positive, with advance-to-decline ratios of 1.69x, 1.41x, 2.04x,1.52x, and 1.25x across the five sessions, indicating that buying interest continued to outweigh sell-side activity despite intermittent pullbacks. Market capitalization increased from ~₦156.80 trillion to ₦157.46 trillion. Notably, the strong 2.04x breadth recorded mid-week signalled broad-based accumulation and sustained risk appetite, although the sharp index ease suggests investors rotated into selective counters amid cautious positioning. Overall, sentiment remained constructive, supported by healthy market internals and sustained participation across key sectors, though the ASI closed at 0.66% WtD, with YtD higher at +57.30%.
Throughout the reviewed period, the global financial landscape was marked by heightened volatility as investors weighed hawkish central bank signals, the tensions in the Middle East, and data from the U.S. labour market. U.S. equities recorded highs, with the S&P 500 closing at 7,398.93 (+2.3% WoW), the Nasdaq Composite easing to 26,247.08 (+4.0% WoW), and the Dow Jones Industrial Average at 49,609.16 (+0.2% WoW), pressured by Treasury yields and rising energy costs. Macroeconomic sentiment remained centered on a resilient but gradually cooling U.S. economy, as the ADP report showed 115,000 private-sector jobs added while investors monitored Nonfarm Payrolls after March’s strong increase, with unemployment holding near 4.3%. In fixed-income markets, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield hovered around 4.40% after touching 4.45% briefly, reflective of the higher-for-longer policy stance and inflation concerns intensified by oil price volatility. Across Europe, Germany’s DAX 40 closed at 24,338.68 (+1.45% WoW) while the FTSE 100 settled at 10,233.07 (-1.26% WoW), demonstrating relative resilience despite softer manufacturing activity and increasingly hawkish signals from the ECB and BoE, both hinting at potential rate hikes in June 2026. Meanwhile, Asian markets traded cautiously amidst a broader global risk-off environment, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 advanced by 5.38% to 62,713.65, while China’s Shanghai Composite Index ended at 4,180.09 (+1.65% WoW), Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed at 26,393.71 (+2.39% WoW), and South Korea’s KOSPI settled at 7,498.00 (+13.93% WoW) as rising energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty weighed on regional growth expectations.
Across Africa, developments for the week ended May 8, 2026, reflected a resilient but uneven growth environment, with persistent macroeconomic variation and the ongoing fiscal and structural adjustments across key economies. In Zimbabwe, as part of broader efforts to improve investor confidence and support external debt restructuring and economic re-engagement, the government moved to the return of 67 foreign-owned farms previously acquired under earlier land reform programmes, and bilateral investment protection arrangements. In South Africa, inflation remained relatively contained within the central bank’s target framework while regulatory work continued on a proposed national digital identity system built around the “MyMzansi” platform. In Ghana, inflation rose to 3.40% in April 2026, its first increase since December 2024, alongside continued reliance on cocoa-linked financing and domestic bond issuance to support stability and delivery obligations. Also, Ghana’s nominal GDP projected at $118.29 billion for 2026 in the IMF’s April 2026 World Economic Outlook, marks a sharp rise from $83.3bn in 2024 and $114.7bn in 2025. This reflects a more stable cedi, stronger gold and cocoa export earnings, and the impact of the late 2025 GDP rebasing, which pushed Ghana ahead of Côte d’Ivoire and Kenya to 8th (prev. 10th) place in 2026 Africa’s economic rankings behind Nigeria, Egypt, South Africa, Algeria, Morocco, Angola, and Ethiopia. Mauritania expands its internet and telecom infrastructure capacity, reinforcing digital connectivity objectives.
The commodities market remained highly volatile during the reviewed period, driven largely by shifting geopolitical developments surrounding the US-Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil prices initially surged on fears of heightened supply disruption, with Brent and WTI briefly spiking above $114/bbl. and $107/bbl., respectively, before easing sharply midweek as prospects for a US-Iran peace agreement improved and discussions around reopening Strait of Hormuz gained traction. By May 8, Brent and WTI had stabilized around $100.79/bbl. and $95.09/bbl., individually, as renewed military clashes revived concerns over global supply disruptions, with the IEA warning that nearly 14 million barrels per day of supply remained affected. In the precious metals market, gold experienced sharp swings but maintained an upward bias, rising from a low of $4,537/oz on May 4 to above $4,700/oz by week-end, supported by safe-haven demand and easing concerns on oil-driven inflation during periods of diplomatic optimism. Overall, commodity markets reflected heightened sensitivity to geopolitical headlines, inflation expectations, and evolving central bank rate outlooks.
Looking ahead, we expect elevated system liquidity from inflows of over ₦2.31trn from FGN bond coupon payments of ₦303.72bn for 19.89% May 2033 paper, and maturing OMO of ₦2.31trn, likely supporting demand across the fixed-income market and sustaining mild yield moderation as well as fresh OMO auction(s). Market attention will center on the April 2026 inflation report (we anticipated the reading around 15.60%, following a consolidating adjustment to the feed through of energy driven volatility), FX stability, and oil price movements, while global sentiment will remain influenced by U.S. Treasury yields, central bank signals, and Middle East developments. Equities may see selective bargain hunting as investors maintain cautious positioning across asset classes.
By: Sandra A. Aghaizu
Oil danced like fear on a trader’s screen,
spiking on whispers of war,
falling on the breath of peace.
Gold stood quietly in the storm,
a silent vault of trembling faith,
while markets counted risk
like coins slipping through nervous fingers.
Between the Strait and the skyline,
the world priced uncertainty
by the barrel,
and hope by the ounce.
