November 2026, Edition 2
The Nigerian financial markets navigated contrasting dynamics during the week, as abundant system liquidity, selective CBN sterilisation and shifting investor risk appetite shaped asset performance. System liquidity approached ₦10.00 trillion before moderating below ₦8.00 trillion, supporting a cautiously bullish bias in the fixed-income secondary market, while the Nigeria Treasury Bill (NTB) auction reflected strong demand concentrated at the 364-day tenor; the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) successive Open Market Operation (OMO) auctions demonstrated its continued influence over rate direction through selective allotments and lower stop rates on newly introduced longer-dated instruments. Despite attractive yields and substantial liquidity, investors remained selective, balancing reinvestment opportunities against firm issuer rate thresholds. The Naira recorded marginal gains at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM), although declining external reserves indicated persistent foreign exchange (FX) vulnerabilities. Conversely, the equities market reversed its recent momentum, with profit-taking in heavyweight stocks dragging the ASI lower by 2.13% WoW, as investors reassessed valuations and repositioned towards fixed-income opportunities. Beyond domestic markets, divergent monetary policy responses, currency pressures and geopolitical uncertainties continued to shape global and African investment sentiment. Overall, the week highlighted a market increasingly defined by the competition between liquidity-driven demand, attractive fixed-income yields and equity valuation adjustments.
In commodities, prices closed higher Week-on-Week (WoW) at $90.83/bbl. (-12.76%) and $98.32/bbl. (-13.32%) for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude, respectively, while gold was at $4,070.41/oz (+5.02%).
System liquidity inched towards the ₦10.00 trillion mark during the week, opening at ₦7.33 trillion, peaking at ₦9.97 trillion on Tuesday, before closing at ₦8.51 trillion, marking 16.11% WtD. Liquidity built up on inflows of ₦2.02 trillion and ₦572.55 billion in OMO and NTB maturities, with outflows of over ₦6.20 trillion in OMO and NTB sales. Money market rates eased modestly, with the Open Repo Rate (OPR) and Overnight (O/N) rate closing at 20.00% (0bps) and 20.20% (-18bps), respectively. In the Foreign Exchange (FX) market, the Naira traded within a range of $/₦1,344.00 and $/₦1,353.00, before closing at $/₦1,346.79 on Friday
The fixed-income secondary market sustained a bullish bias during the week, following the release of the primary money market auction results reflecting shifting firm issuer rate thresholds, amidst a cash-awash system liquidity condition, and cautious investor repricing. Buying pressure was concentrated in mid-to-long-dated FGN bonds, particularly the 2033–2038 maturities, as offers initially climbed towards 16.95% (-15bps) before moderating to mid-16.70%–16.85% by Friday. The OMO and NTB instruments also traded at eased yields, with short-dated OMO offers including the 01-Dec.-26 bill reaching 17.23%, while the long-day bill, particularly the 04-Nov.-27 NTB bill was at 18.83%, reflecting investors’ continued preference for attractive yields. Overall, the market remained supply and yield-sensitive, with selective preference towards the close, offering some price support, although elevated yield expectations continued to constrain a sustained bullish repricing.
NTB Issuance: The November 04, 2026, auction signalled an increasingly tilted and selective demand for the 1-year bill, with total subscriptions of ₦2.04 trillion against the ₦800 billion offered. Offer-per-tenor performance was under-subscribed for the 91- and 182-day bills at 0.25x and 0.26x, while the 364-day outperformed by 3.32x. translating to a bid-to-cover ratio of 1.12x, 1.03x, and 4.32x for the 91-, 182-, and 364-day bills, respectively, while allotment to offer ratio was at 0.22x, 0.25x, and 0.77x. Total sales were 63.7% of total offer, marking an unmet offer demand of 36.3%, driven by selective allotment despite demand being heavily skewed toward the 364-day bill, compared to weaker interest in the 91- and 182-day bills. Stop rates held steady across the curve. Overall, the auction highlights the issuer’s continued selective allotment strategy, maintaining rate threshold amid strong demand at the long end.
AUCTION DATE | 04-11-2026 | 04-11-2026 | 04-11-2026 |
MATURITY DATE | 04-02-2027 | 06-05-2027 | 04-11-2027 |
TENOR | 91-DAY | 182-DAY | 364-DAY |
OFFER (₦) | 100,000,000,000 | 100,000,000,000 | 600,000,000,000 |
SUBSCRIPTION (₦) | 25,010,922,000 | 25,829,634,000 | 1,994,159,288,000 |
ALLOTMENT (₦) | 22,395,272,000 | 25,169,632,000 | 461,836,287,000 |
BID RANGE (%) | 15.0000 – 16.1500 | 15.4000 – 16.5000 | 15.0000 – 18.1800 |
STOP RATES (%) | 15.4000 | 15.7900 | 15.8000 |
PREVIOUS STOP RATES (%) | 15.4000 | 15.7900 | 15.8000 |
Money Market Issuance: The CBN conducted two OMO auctions on November 3 and 6, 2026, each featuring three tenors with a combined offer of ₦3.00 trillion. The November 3 auction reflected the CBN’s continued influence over short-term yield formation, with the 126- and 133-day bills clearing at 17.71% (+2bps) and 17.67% (+4bps), respectively, while the 119-day bill settled at 17.77%. Total allotment stood at ₦2.95 trillion against subscriptions of ₦3.52 trillion, representing an 83.7% subscription-to-allotment ratio. This liquidity absorption occurred amid elevated system liquidity, which peaked above ₦9.00 trillion, reinforcing the CBN’s sterilisation efforts to contain excess naira liquidity and associated exchange-rate and inflationary pressures. Effective yields stood at 18.86% for the 119- and 126-day bills and 18.89% for the 133-day bill.
The November 6 auction marked a notable shift in issuance strategy with the reintroduction of longer-dated OMO instruments at 179, 270 and 361 days, extending the investment horizon beyond the shorter tenors offered in the previous auction. Notably, the 361-day tenor represented a return to near one-year OMO issuance, last seen with a 354-day bill on January 30, 2026, which cleared at 17.25%. Demand was particularly strong, with bid-to-offer ratios of 1.48x, 2.29x and 7.70x across the respective tenors. However, the CBN maintained a selective allotment approach, allocating only 0.55x, 0.28x and 0.52x of the respective offers. Despite aggregate demand reaching approximately 3.85x the total offer, only 47.4% of subscriptions were allotted, with stop rates declining across the curve to 17.25%, 16.54% and 15.74%, respectively. Suggestive of a deliberate effort to attract longer-duration liquidity at progressively lower rates while maintaining control over the cost of sterilisation.
Secondary Market Implications: The outcome presents a cautiously bullish signal for fixed-income securities, particularly at the longer end of the OMO curve, where lower stop rates could encourage yield repricing. However, the substantial liquidity mop-up from the preceding auction, combined with the CBN’s selective allotment strategy, suggests that liquidity conditions and issuer rate thresholds will remain key determinants of market direction. While excess liquidity could support demand and exert downward pressure on secondary-market yields, the sustainability of any rally will depend on subsequent OMO issuance, the quantum of liquidity absorbed and the CBN’s willingness to maintain or lower its clearing rates.
AUCTION DATE | TENOR | OFFER (₦‘ B) | BIDS (₦‘ B) | TOTAL SALE (₦‘ B) | STOP RATES (%) | PREVIOUS TENOR RANGE STOP RATES (%) |
03-11-2026 | 119-DAY | 500.00 | 539.82 | 339.82 | 17.7700 | 00.0000 |
126-DAY | 500.00 | 592.56 | 247.31 | 17.7100 | 17.6900 | |
133-DAY | 500.00 | 2,385.97 | 2,357.97 | 17.6700 | 17.6300 | |
| 179-DAY | 500.00 | 741.62 | 405.62 | 17.2500 | 00.0000 |
270-DAY | 500.00 | 1,145.60 | 318.70 | 16.5400 | 00.0000 | |
361-DAY | 500.00 | 3,850.73 | 1997.12 | 15.7400 | 00.0000 |
The Naira marginally gained at the NFEM, appreciating ₦1.15 (-0.09%) WtD, and declining ₦0.54 (+0.04%) WoW, closing at $/₦1,346.79, compared to $/₦1,346.26 the previous week. Foreign reserves faced pressure while maintaining the $55.00 billion threshold but eased by 0.19% to $55.13 billion as of November 5, 2026, from $55.24 billion. While, blocked funds declined by 0.81% to $507.00 million from $505.76 million, with the blocked-reserve ratio at 0.92%. The movements point to persistent external pressures in external liquidity and FX conditions.
The Nigerian equity market closed the week on a bearish note as the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) ASI fell 0.33% to 248,877.22 points (shedding 5,422.27 points WoW), wiping out ₦3.52 trillion in overall weekly capitalisation to settle at ₦161.58 trillion, with 29 gainers against 23 decliners and 80 unchanged. Top gainers on Friday included Champion Breweries (+10.00%), WAPIC Insurance (+10.00%), and Honeywell Flour Mills (+9.87%). Daily movements began with a flat Monday contraction of -0.02%, which was temporarily erased by consecutive heavyweight-led buying sessions on Tuesday (+0.02%) and Wednesday (+0.19% to a high of 254,762.81 points). However, the primary market drivers shifted violently on Thursday as Dangote Cement hit a 10% lower circuit limit, single-handedly wiping out ₦2.5 trillion in value and triggering a sharp -1.98% index plunge. This heavy institutional selling pressure spilled into Friday, causing an additional -0.33% drop driven by intense profit-taking in blue chips like MTNNigeria, Zenith Bank, and GTCO, as investors reallocated liquidity toward high-demand debt instruments. Bringing the ASI change at -2.11% WtD, -2.13% WoW, and YtD at +59.93% from +63.42%. Sectoral performance indices bled WoW with Industrial (-4.35%), Oil & Gas (-3.72%), Banking (-2.45%), Consumer Goods (-1.41%), and Insurance (-0.03%).
African macroeconomic developments point to diverging economic conditions, as headline GDP statistical expansions coexist with acute currency and inflationary pressures. In October 2026, severe foreign-exchange volatility hit East and North Africa; the Egyptian pound hit record lows near $/EGP 56, prompting a surprise 100-basis-point hike by the Central Bank of Egypt to 20.00% despite easing urban inflation, while the Ugandan shilling plunged past $/UGX 4,150, forcing an emergency 225-basis-point hike by the Bank of Uganda to 12.00%. Meanwhile, overhauls in statistical data fundamentally altered regional debt profiles, with a 5.1% GDP rebasing expansion by Statistics South Africa lifting nominal GDP to ZAR 8.04 trillion and mechanically lowering the projected peak public debt-to-GDP ratio to 74.6%. Simultaneously, West African dynamics saw Ghana’s inflation accelerate for a third consecutive month to 5.5% due to rising non-food and transport costs, which, despite remaining below the Bank of Ghana’s 6%–10% medium-term target band solidified a cautious monetary pause to defend macroeconomic stability.
Global financial markets experienced heightened volatility, driven by a sharp risk-off rotation in technology equities following Democratic gains in the U.S. midterm elections, which sparked concerns over potential artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure restrictions and heightened regulatory scrutiny. U.S. stock benchmarks closed the week mixed to slightly lower than the overall level, with the S&P 500 rising 0.10% on November 6 to reach 7,361.00 points (though finishing down nearly 3% for the overall reporting period following a sharp mid-week sell-off), while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite traded near 24,315.00 points following a steep single-session tech drop earlier in the week. European and Asian equity benchmarks displayed relative resilience owing to lower exposures to high-valuation tech mega-caps. Central bank divergence took center stage in global fixed income markets, highlighted by the Bank of England (BoE) voting 8–1 to raise its main Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 4.00% amid persistent energy-driven inflation. Equities closed mixed WoW: the Nasdaq Composite at 25,579.42 (-3.37%), the S&P 500 at 7,376.86 (-2.68%), and the Dow Jones Industrial Average at 51,285.73 (-0.94%). Across Europe, Germany’s DAX 40 was at 25,919.48 (-4.05%), while the FTSE 100 was at 10,673.94 (-0.52%), and the Stoxx 600 at 648.33 (+0.24%). Asian markets were mixed, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 at 57,434.77 (-5.96%), China’s Shanghai Composite Index at 3,649.18 (+1.39%), Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index at 24,481.86 (+5.10%), and South Korea’s KOSPI at 5,059.69 (-11.71%).
Global commodity markets recorded mixed performances, as shifting geopolitical expectations and monetary policy outlooks influenced investor sentiment, following a post-election risk realignment that pushed prices downward. Brent crude and WTI traded within weekly ranges of $90.83–$97.00 and $98.32–$109.57 per barrel, respectively, pressured by optimism over a potential US-Iran diplomatic breakthrough and expectations of improved Middle Eastern oil supplies. However, persistent security concerns around the Strait of Hormuz limited further losses. Conversely, gold traded in a weekly range of $3,927.90–$4,102.50 per ounce, supported by a weaker US dollar, declining Treasury yields, and renewed safe-haven demand after the US midterm elections.
The new week is poised to be key for global markets, with expected macroeconomic updates, including the U.S. and China Inflation report for October 2026, and the Eurozone flash GDP release, which are crucial for market direction and sentiment. Anticipated liquidity inflows for the week are over ₦2.40 trillion, comprising ₦2.30 trillion and ₦148.57 billion from OMO and NTB maturities, respectively.
Expected dividend payouts include Stanbic IBTC Holdings Plc (STANBIC) and Guinness Nigeria Plc (GUINNESS) at ₦4.50 and ₦7.00 per share, respectively, on November 13, 2026.
By: Sandra A. Aghaizu
Across the markets, new signals rise, Inflation whispers beneath October skies. Growth sets its compass, sentiment takes flight, As global economies navigate the night.
₦2.40 trillion prepares to flow, While dividend seeds promise returns to grow. In every market, as fortunes are weighed, Tomorrow’s opportunities are quietly made.
