September 2026, Edition 2
Nigerian financial markets entered September 2026 on a decisively constructive footing, as stronger liquidity, easing fixed-income yields, Naira appreciation, and accelerating economic growth reinforced investor confidence, while the equities market extended its historic rally ahead of Nigeria’s return to the FTSE Russell Frontier Market index. At the primary market auctions, there was strong demand for long-dated Open Market Operation (OMO) and Nigeria Treasury Bill (NTB), alongside falling stop rates, indicating growing conviction in further yield compression. The Naira strengthened to $/₦1,321.22, with reserves rising to $53.99bn and Q2 GDP accelerating to 4.43% supports the macro backdrop. The equity market All Share Index (ASI) closed at 246,992.44 points (+58.72% YtD) in addition to select Nigerian stocks set for FTSE Frontier inclusion, market momentum remained strong with careful fixed-income positioning amidst persistent global and domestic structural risks point to a market increasingly driven by fundamentals, liquidity and selectivity rather than broad-based risk appetite. In commodities, prices closed higher Week-on-week (WoW), with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude increasing by 9.64% and 9.05% to $91.48/bbl. and $96.28/bbl. respectively, while gold fell by 0.48% to $4,432.56/oz.
System liquidity opened at ₦4.65 trillion, peaked at a close of ₦4.66 trillion on Friday, resulting in a marginal increase of 0.19% week-to-date (WTD). Money market rates were stable, with the Open Repo Rate (OPR) at 22.00% and the Overnight (O/N) rate at 22.23% (WoW: +2bps). In the Foreign Exchange (FX) market, the Naira traded within a range of $/₦1,302.00 and $/₦1,336.00, before closing at $/₦1,321.22 on Friday.
The fixed-income market maintained a bullish bias through the week, with secondary-market yields generally compressing as demand strengthened across OMO, NTBs and FGN bonds. OMO offers eased from around 18.85% to 18.90% on Monday to 18.35% to 18.60% by Friday, while the NTBs also repriced following the auction result, spilling to existing bills across the curve, with the 02-Sept-27 offer moved from 16.70% to 16.45% on Wednesday to as low as 16.44% on Friday, alongside bids easing from 16.74% to 16.57%, indicating continued buying interest but increasingly tighter spreads. FGN bond offers also repriced lower, particularly across the 2031–2038 maturities, with the 2031 offer falling from 16.95% on Tuesday to 16.60% on Friday, while the 2034–2038 segment settled broadly in the 16.65% to 17.00% range. Overall, the week points to renewed interest with declining secondary-market yields and gradual curve compression, with the rally strongest in short- to medium-dated instruments; however, the narrowing bid-offer spreads suggest liquidity is improving while investors remain selective ahead of fundamental shift and liquidity developments.
Money Market: The results from the debut OMO auction held September 01, 2026 further highlight sustained investor appetite for OMO instruments, with demand concentrated in the long-day tenors. Total subscriptions were strongly skewed toward the 154-day bill, which recorded 9.57x subscription and 4.92x allotment, representing approximately 69.7% of total subscription and 68.4% of total OMO sales; the 147-day bill attracted 2.76x subscription and 1.74x allotment, while the 91-day bill recorded 2.82x subscription and 1.07x allotment. Despite aggregate allotments reaching ₦2.88 trillion, well above the ₦1.0 trillion offer, stop rates declined across all tenors, with the 91-day rate falling 26bps to 19.59% and both the 147-day and 154-day rates declining by 33bps to 18.99%, from 19.32% previous close. The sizeable allotments, represented increases of 7.3%, 74.15% and 392.3% over the initial offers across the respective tenors, despite lower clearing rates, indicative that strong demand coexisted with investors’ willingness to accept lower yields, signalling expectations of further easing or declining short-term rates and pointing to continued demand-driven downward repricing across the OMO curve.
AUCTION DATE | TENOR | OFFER (₦‘ B) | BIDS (₦‘ B) | TOTAL SALE (₦‘ B) | STOP RATES (%) | PREVIOUS TENOR RANGE STOP RATES (%) |
01-09-2026 | 91-DAY | 200.00 | 564.16 | 214.55 | 19.5900 | 19.8500 |
147-DAY | 400.00 | 1,103.83 | 696.49 | 18.9900 | 19.3200 | |
154-DAY | 400.00 | 3,829.74 | 1,969.00 | 18.9900 | 19.3200 |
Primary Issuance: The first NTB auction in September 2026 showed an unflinching preference for the 364-day tenor, which attracted about 6.48x the offer, while demand for the 91- and 182-day bills remained weak at just 0.51x and 0.34x, respectively. Despite the heavy long-end demand, the DMO cut the 364-day stop rate by 31bps to 16.84%, while keeping the 91- and 182-day stop rates unchanged at 16.30% and 16.50%, respectively, reflecting investor acceptance of lower yields and a continued preference for attractive returns. Notably, the 364-day allotment exceeded its offer by 1.52x, indicating the DMO’s accommodation of over-demand but was selective, likely providing a bullish signal for the secondary NTB market, particularly at the long end, as the lower auction clearing rate establishes a softer yield benchmark and could trigger repricing gains in existing longer-dated bills. However, the selective allotment may also increase near-term supply pressure in the secondary market, leaving room for lower stop rates at subsequent auctions. Effective yields settled at 16.99%, 17.98%, and 19.72% (-97bps) showing a clear departure from the 20% region. Overall, the auction points to sustained demand-driven yield compression at the long end, while the weak demand for shorter tenors suggests investors remain reluctant to deploy funds at current short-tenor yields.
AUCTION DATE | 02-09-2026 | 02-09-2026 | 02-09-2026 |
MATURITY DATE | 03-12-2026 | 04-03-2027 | 02-09-2027 |
TENOR | 91-DAY | 182-DAY | 364-DAY |
OFFER (₦) | 150,000,000,000 | 100,000,000,000 | 500,000,000,000 |
SUBSCRIPTION (₦) | 76,817,405,000 | 33,506,561,000 | 3,238,150,693,000 |
ALLOTMENT (₦) | 76,278,404,000 | 27,266,561,000 | 762,167,172,000 |
BID RANGE (%) | 15.7500 – 18.0000 | 16.0000 – 19.5000 | 16.0000 – 19.6200 |
STOP RATES (%) | 16.3000 | 16.5000 | 16.8400 |
PREVIOUS STOP RATES (%) | 16.3000 | 16.5000 | 17.1500 |
The Naira further gained during the week in the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM), appreciating ₦11.72 (-0.88%) WTD and ₦16.07 (-1.20%) WoW, closing at $/₦1,321.22 (WoW: ₦1,337.29). Foreign reserves increased from $53.31 billion to $54.08 billion (+1.45%) as of September 03, 2026, while blocked funds eased to $532.69 million (-1.74%), with the blocked reserve ratio at 0.98% (-0.4 bps), indicating an improved foreign exchange condition amidst external pressures.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria’s Q2 2026 GDP growth accelerated to 4.43% YoY, up from 3.89% in Q1 2026 and 4.23% in Q2 2025, reflecting broad-based improvement led by the non-oil economy and a recovery in crude output, which rose to 1.72mbpd and lifted oil-sector growth to 7.31%. The non-oil sector remained dominant, accounting for 95.84% of real GDP and expanding by 4.31%, supported by strong performances in Telecommunications and Information Services (9.62%), construction (6.75%), agriculture (4.39%) and services (4.60%). However, the growth mix remains uneven, as manufacturing expanded only 3.24% while electricity, gas, steam and air-conditioning contracted 10.63%, highlighting persistent industrial and infrastructure constraints. Overall, the data point to improving economic momentum but limited productive-capacity expansion, with stronger oil, services and digital activity yet to translate into a broad-based industrial recovery.
The Nigeria Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) September 1, 2026 exposure draft marks a major tightening of Nigeria’s oversight of online Forex and Contract for Difference (CFD) trading, extending regulation to domestic and offshore operators targeting Nigerian residents and requiring registration as Broker/Dealer, Introducing Broker or Technology/Platform Provider. The proposed framework introduces substantial capital requirements, up to ₦5.0 billion for technology/platform providers and ₦3.0 billion for market-making brokers, alongside mandatory risk disclosures, daily client-fund segregation, negative-balance protection, bans on binary and short-duration contracts, and retail leverage caps of 1:400 for major FX pairs and 1:2 for crypto, with non-compliance attracting a minimum ₦1.0 million fine per affected client. Restrictions on offshore solicitation, local corporate-presence requirements, unapproved Naira pairs and daily spread reporting further signal a shift toward tighter market discipline and greater regulatory accountability. Importantly, the rules remain subject to stakeholder input, with the SEC allowing two weeks from September 1, 2026 for comments before finalisation; thereafter, existing operators face a three-month application and six-month full-compliance window. The immediate implication is higher compliance and capital costs, likely industry consolidation and reduced scope for highly leveraged retail activity, while strengthening investor protection and favouring well-capitalised, locally compliant operators.
The Nigeria Exchange (NGX) equities market maintained a bullish bias through the week, with the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) ASI rising by 2.36% to close at 246,992.44 points with the YtD return reaching +58.72%, +0.93% WoW and +1.14% WTD, supported by broad-based buying, stronger trading activity and gains across banking, oil & gas, insurance and consumer stocks. Momentum was strongest on Monday and Tuesday, when the index advanced 1.20% and 0.77%, respectively, before profit-taking triggered a midweek pullback and a modest 0.15% rebound on Thursday. Market breadth improved to 1.46x from 0.46x and persistent selling in several large-cap names suggest the rally is becoming more selective. Trading value peaked at ₦40.75bn on Tuesday, while volume reached 651.24mn units, highlighting elevated investor participation. Overall, the market remains firmly bullish, but the emergence of profit-taking and narrower breadth warrants greater selectivity as investors rotate toward stocks with stronger catalysts and earnings support. Across key sectors was positive; Oil & Gas (+9.10%), Insurance (+3.85%), Banking (+3.58%) and Consumer Goods (+3.52%), while Industrial Goods (-0.35%) closed lower, highlighting continued selective run rather than broad-based investor participation.
FTSE Russell’s inclusion of thirty-one (31) Nigerian equities in its Frontier Index Series ahead of Nigeria’s confirmed return to Frontier Market status on September 21, 2026 marks a significant improvement in Nigeria’s global market visibility and investability after three years of Unclassified status. The inclusion comprises of 10 large-cap, 10 mid-cap and 11 small-cap stocks, led by major names such as Dangote Cement, GTCO, MTN Nigeria, Zenith Bank and First HoldCo, should strengthen benchmark visibility, facilitate greater institutional investor participation and potentially improve liquidity and valuation discovery for eligible equities. The re-entry follows improvements in FX liquidity, capital repatriation and market accessibility, as well as extensive engagement over concerns arising from the T+1 settlement regime. With Nigerian megacaps already adding ₦46.69trn in market value between December 2025 and August 2026, the index inclusion could reinforce the bullish rerating in leading equities, although actual foreign inflows will depend on index-tracking allocations, market liquidity and sustained improvements in investor access.
The SEC has approved the proposed Initial Public Offering (IPO) of Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals, paving the way for the company to commence its public listing. The offer comprises 4.10 billion shares priced at ₦525.00 per share, with the potential to raise approximately ₦2.15 trillion. Scheduled to open on September 14, 2026, comprises a 15% over-allotment option to accommodate strong demand. Proceeds from the IPO will be used to fund the refinery’s expansion plans, including increasing its refining capacity from 650,000 barrels to 1.40 million barrels per day.
In the week ended September 4, 2026, global financial markets processed a wave of major August macroeconomic releases that signalled steady service-sector expansion alongside persistent price pressures and a cooling labour backdrop. In August, industrial activity reflected divergent momentum, as China’s Manufacturing PMI improved to 51.5 points from July’s 50.9 points led by increased outputs, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 54.6 points (Prev. 55.6 points in July 2026) below market expectations, due to the rising costs, supply chain disruptions and increased uncertainty with tariffs in addition to Middle East conflict adding further pressure. The S&P Global Eurozone Manufacturing PMI strengthened to 52.7 points, driven by robust expansion in Germany (54.1 points) despite localized contraction across Italy and Spain. Services remained the primary economic engine, with final August S&P Global Composite PMIs staying in growth territory across Spain, Italy, France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK, while the US ISM Services PMI held steady at 54.1 points. Inflation metrics diverged according to the Eurozone headline flash as August CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year (marking a three-year high for the region, driven by a massive 14.3% surge in energy costs), whereas South Korea’s Inflation rate rose to 3.1% in August (prev. 2.8% in July) moving further above target levels of 2.0%. Growth and policy updates saw Australia post positive Q2 GDP growth at 2.1% (beating expectations of 1.8%), Canada report a trade surplus of C$770million (narrowing sharply from C$4.2billion in June, marking the first slowdown in four months) alongside a rate hold by the Bank of Canada (BoC) at 2.25%. North American labour markets confirmed cooling trends, highlighted by moderate US ADP private payroll growth (+38,000 jobs added), soft August Non-Farm Payrolls data (nearly triple the consensus expectation at +162,000 jobs added while unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1%), and Canada’s unemployment rate unchanged at 6.4%. Against this backdrop, sovereign bond yields remained elevated, with US 10-year Treasury yields near 4.79%, UK 10-year Gilts eased at 5.14%, and German 10-year Bunds around 3.34%, driven by persistent macroeconomic pressure. Regionally, Ghana’s headline inflation increased to 5.00% from 4.60% in July (recording the second consecutive monthly increase), driven by volatile energy-related cost, indicating a pass through of global oil price volatility on energy dependent economy. The equities market performance closed mixed WoW: the Nasdaq Composite at 26,506.99 (+0.40%), S&P 500 at 7,718.60 (+0.09%), and the Dow Jones Industrial Average at 53,414.25 (-0.27%). Across Europe, Germany’s DAX 40 was at 26,046.40 (-1.97%), while the FTSE 100 was at 10,831.09 (+0.06%), and the Stoxx 600 at 649.88 (+0.81%). Asian markets were positive, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 at 65,020.94 (-2.09%), China’s Shanghai Composite Index at 3,930.12 (-0.56%), Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index at 25,650.87 (+0.26%), and South Korea’s KOSPI at 6,687.21 (-1.49%).
Gold and crude oil traded higher toward the end of the week amid renewed Middle East tensions, although gold remained highly sensitive to shifts in US rate expectations: gold moved within $4,344.68–$4,495.94/oz, recovering to around $4,432.56/oz by Friday as softer labour-market signals and dovish Fed commentary pulled down the dollar and Treasury yields, while markets cut the probability of a September rate hike to about 50% from above 60%; despite the volatility, bullion remained supported by safe-haven demand and currency-debasement concerns. Oil strengthened sharply, with WTI trading within $85.46–$91.48/bbl. and Brent was within $90.28–$95.91/bbl., both gaining roughly 9% on the week, as US-Iran hostilities heightened concerns over supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, where vessel transits fell below the 10-day average; refinery damage, tight inventories and limited spare capacity further point to elevated global fuel-price risks, although continued crude flows and weaker Chinese demand provided some counterweight.
Globally, market direction remains sensitive to key policy and economic signals, with the OPEC meeting, ECB rate decision and August 2026 US CPI release expected to shape expectations ahead of the September FOMC meeting as well as influence near-term risk appetite and asset-price momentum. Locally, the coming week is expected to see over ₦3.14 trillion in liquidity inflows, comprising ₦3.07 trillion from OMO maturities and ₦71.37 billion from NTB maturities, providing supportive liquidity conditions for fixed-income demand ahead of the scheduled ₦500 billion NTB auction.
MTN Nigeria Communications Plc. is scheduled to pay a ₦26.00 per share dividend on September 7, 2026, followed by Custodian Investment Plc, which is expected to pay ₦0.25 per share on September 8, 2026.
By: Sandra A. Aghaizu
Markets wait at the crossroads,
Where inflation, rates and oil decide the road.
Liquidity flows like a rising tide,
While investors watch which way yields will glide.
₦3.14 trillion knocks at the door,
Bringing fresh opportunity to the financial shore.
And as dividends fall like rain,
Investors wait to see what comes again.
