With the final week of April 2026 shortened by Workers’ Day, markets showed a widening gap between ample liquidity and a softening real economy. System liquidity rose to ₦7.78trn as the CBN PMI fell to 49.40 (first contraction in 16 months). Equities stayed firm: the NGX ASI gained 8.5% on large-cap bank and industrial names. Fixed income remained fragile, reinforcing a barbell stance, favouring short-tenor liquidity plus selective long duration exposure, with limited appetite for the belly of the curve. The Naira stayed under pressure around $/₦1,374.94 amid external energy shocks and hawkish global policy, keeping inflation and stagflation risks elevated. Week on week (WoW), Brent closed at $108.14/bbl. (+0.60%), WTI at $101.94/bbl. (+5.64%), and gold at $4,612.50/oz (-1.38%).
Interbank liquidity opened Monday at a ₦4.52trn surplus, peaked at ₦7.78trn, and closed on Thursday at ₦4.96trn (+9.69% WTD). The Open Repo Rate (OPR) steady at 22.00%; Overnight rate (O/N) moved from 22.20% to 22.30%. The Naira traded between $/₦1,359.50–1,386.00 and closed at $/₦1,374.94.
The secondary market trading was range-bound but uneven. T-bills held around 16.47%–16.50% as selective buying (Jun-26, Nov-26, Feb-27) met profit-taking, keeping yields anchored. OMOs stayed elevated at ~19.80%–20.40%. FGN bond yields drifted up into the high-16s, led by selling in the 2031–2034 belly, while demand in 2027–2030 and the long end tempered the bearish move. Positioning remained tactical rather than trend-driven.
Eurobond yields mildly compressed (Apr. 24–29, 2026), strongest at the short-to-mid end (Nov. 2027, Sept. 2028, Mar. 2029). The long end was sticky, reflecting cautious duration appetite and selective buying amid uncertainty.
The DMO’s April 27, 2026, FGN Bond Auction showed clear preference for long duration: the 2035 dominated demand and allotments, the 2030 underperformed, and the 2032 saw selective uptake. Movement in yields reinforced barbell positioning, compression at the short and long ends, with a mid-curve spike as investors avoided intermediate risk.
FGN Bond | 17.945% AUG. 2030 | 17.95% JUN. 2032 | 22.60% JAN 2035 |
Maturity Date | 27-08-2030 | 25-06-2032 | 29-01-2035 |
Tenors | 5 | 7 | 10 |
Amount Offered (₦’B) | 300.00 | 100.00 | 300.00 |
Subscription (₦’B) | 181.94 | 167.04 | 599.02 |
Amount Allotted (₦’B) | 46.84 | 18.72 | 211.24 |
Stop Rates (%) | 16.3000 | 16.5000 | 16.5900 |
Last Auction Stop Rates (%) | 16.0000 | 16.1500 | 17.5200 |
The April 28, 2026 OMO auction reflected excess liquidity and barbell demand: as there was strong uptake at 7- and 140-day bills (both fully allotted) compared to the weak interest in the 105-day. Despite oversubscription, stop rates were largely unchanged, highlighting the CBN’s firm pricing and investors’ preference for short liquidity and selective duration over mid-curve risk.
AUCTION DATE | TENOR | OFFER (₦‘B) | BIDS (₦‘B) | TOTAL SALE (₦‘B) | STOP RATES (%) | PREVIOUS TENOR STOP RATES (%) |
| 7-DAY | 200.00 | 767.00 | 767.00 | 21.9000 | 21.9000 |
105-DAY | 200.00 | 41.60 | 0.20 | 19.8500 | 19.8700 | |
140-DAY | 200.00 | 971.10 | 971.10 | 19.9100 | 19.9100 |
Nigeria’s private sector slipped into contraction in April 2026 as the CBN Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 49.40, ending a 16-month expansion. Output, new orders, employment, and inventories weakened, led by services (48.80) and industry (49.50), while agriculture remained slightly positive at 50.20. Rising input and output costs signalled sustained price pressure amid supply disruptions and softer demand, pointing to a fragile growth outlook.
The Naira weakened WTD by ₦10.71 (+0.78%), trading at $/₦1,364.24–₦1,374.94 in the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM), and closed at $/₦1,374.94 (WoW: ₦16.51, +1.22%). Reserves eased to $48.37bn (-0.17%) as of April 29; blocked funds fell to $729.89m (-0.42%), keeping the blocked reserve ratio at 1.51%. FX conditions remained relatively stable but pressured by liquidity and external shocks.
The NGX ASI rose from ~223,600.00 to 242,277.81 (+8.5% WoW), lifting market cap from ~₦145.00trn to ₦156.24trn on continued liquidity inflows. Breadth stayed weak (0.81x early, peaking at 1.02x, ending 0.98x), highlighting a top-heavy rally led by large-cap banks and industrials. Gains in Aradel, BUA Cement, WAPCO, and Presco offset profit-taking in UBA, FirstHoldCo, and AccessCorp. Overall, the ASI returns were +8.47% WtD and +55.69% YtD, but narrow and selective participation leaves the rally sensitive to positioning shifts, despite surpassing FY2025 performance.
Global markets (week ended May 1, 2026) faced policy pauses and rising stagflation risk as the Middle East conflict (entered day 63) pushed Brent briefly toward $120/bbl. The U.S. Fed Reserve held rates at 3.50%–3.75% (8–4 vote) amid notable dissents, while the Bank of England (BoE) steady its rate at 3.75% (8–1 vote), and the European Central Bank (ECB) held its policy rate at 2.00%, with June hike signals to counter energy-driven inflation; the Bank of Japan (BoJ) held at 0.75% (6-3 vote), amid the yen’s volatility. Against this backdrop, the U.S. equities eased from highs with yields elevated: S&P 500 at 7,230.12 (+0.29%), Nasdaq Composite at 25,114.44 (+1.10%; +15.29% MoM), Dow Jones at 49,499.27 (+0.55%). In Europe, performance was mixed; Germany’s DAX 40 rose 24,292.00 (+1.41%; +7.10% MoM); while the FTSE 100 closed at 10,363.93 (-0.14%). In Asia, trading was holiday-thinned: Shanghai Composite posted 4,112.16 (+0.79%), Hang Seng closed at 25,776.53 (-0.78%), KOSPI at 6,598.87 (+1.90%), Nikkei 225 at 59,513.12 (-0.34%). China’s PMI data were mixed: manufacturing 52.2 compared to non-manufacturing 49.4, leaving the global economy balanced between uneven growth and supply-side shocks.
Commodities reflected a deepening, energy-driven macro shock: crude oil rallied while gold softened under tighter financial conditions. Gold slipped from ~ $4,700/oz to ~ $4,620/oz as rate expectations rose despite geopolitical risk. Brent climbed from ~ $107.5/bbl. to ~ $114.8/bbl. amidst peaking at $126/bbl. during the week, while WTI traded within ~ $96.5/bbl. to ~ $106.2/bbl. on supply disruptions tied to the near closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The backdrop remains structurally tight: OPEC output hit multi-decade lows after a 27% March drop, implying a projected ~7mb/d Q2 deficit. Compounding the dislocation, the United Arab Emirates formally exited OPEC/OPEC+ effective May 1, ending a 59-year membership to regain production autonomy, further fragmenting supply coordination.
May opens with a large liquidity wall against a hawkish policy bias. The market could see over ₦9.49trn in inflows from Eurobond coupons ($105.94bn), FGN/Sukuk payments, and maturing OMO/NTBs. Week 1 alone includes ₦2.63trn in OMO/NTB maturities (₦2.71trn OMO; ₦556.02bn NTB), alongside a ₦700bn NTB auction and the 305th MPC meeting. The CBN is likely to stay aggressive on liquidity mop-up to support the Naira and control inflation, keeping rates anchored despite surplus cash.
Check out our monthly inflows calendar on our social media handles.
By: Sandra A. Aghaizu
The world now walks a leveraged wire,
Above the flames of oil-fed fire.
Central banks pause, hands near the brake,
While fragile candles rise and shake.
Bond yields climb like restless tides,
As nervous capital shifts and hides.
The Nasdaq dances in borrowed light,
While crude oil storms through the silent night.
Bullish whispers fill the air,
Yet stagflation waits like a patient bear.
And every rally, bright and fast,
Trades cautiously against the past.
For markets bloom, then hedge their fears,
Pricing tomorrow through uncertain years.
And somewhere beneath each green display,
The world still risks a correction day.
